A “low-intensity war” between Israel and Hezbollah has been underway since October 7, with the cycle of violence opened by a horrific Hamas terrorist attack that killed 1,200 people on Israeli soil, and then by the war in Gaza that killed more than 41,000 Palestinians. Tensions are now high, and a regional war involving all major powers may be inevitable.
Under fire and pressure over the massive humanitarian devastation in the Gaza Strip and having failed in his original goal of “totally eliminating Hamas,” Benjamin Netanyahu has apparently decided to take the war to the northern border with Lebanon.
The Mossad-organized attack with the simultaneous explosion of thousands of doorbells and walkie-talkies was not just a demonstration of Israel’s capabilities (in terms of intelligence, technology and cyber warfare). It was a deliberate humiliation of Hebolah – Iran’s most powerful proxy. It was a deliberate shock to Lebanon and the entire Middle East. A shock that the Israeli government certainly calculated would not go unanswered.
Netanyahu’s persecution
On Monday, the day before the explosions, Netanyahu’s government turned its attention to Lebanon, announcing a surge in border forces and promising to ensure the safe return of some 60,000 Israelis who had evacuated areas along the northern border. At the same time, reports were leaking that Defense Minister Yoav Galand was leaving the government.
Faced with the threat of ending his political career, as well as legal risks, Netanyahu may well be ready to risk a full-scale conflict. The Israeli strikes were partly psychological, showing Hezbollah members that they should not feel safe anywhere. But they also showed that, if deemed necessary, Israel will act against the terrorist organization, regardless of concerns about collateral civilian casualties. Essentially, it has caused a state of terror throughout Lebanon and angered Hassan Nasrallah.
“It was a declaration of war,” Nasrallah said, reiterating that: “The resistance in Lebanon will not stop supporting the resistance in Gaza, the West Bank and all affected areas.” “Our infrastructure has not been shaken… It is robust, strong, cohesive,” he said, but he likely understood that Hezbollah’s security systems were probably outdated.
How will Hezbollah and Iran respond?
This begs the question: What retaliation might it choose? Will it rely on its vast arsenal (the most powerful possessed by a non-state entity in the world)? Or will it wait for the response to come from Iran? In theory, Hezbollah can count on the support of Tehran, which has so far shown that it does not want to lead things into a regional war (and the first step towards a global war).
Although it carried out “demonstration” missile and drone strikes in April, amid Israel’s targeted assassinations of Iranian commanders and officials in Syria. But then it backed down. When Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran on July 31, the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards promised retaliation. They never came.
The scene of the accident
Analysts have been saying for months that while all parties involved may not want all-out war, impulsive moves, mistakes and intentional or unintentional “accidents” seem to be edging ever closer to that scenario.
The bell attack could end up being one of those measures: an absolutely successful operation and at the same time a huge mistake, a disastrous “accident” for the region.
Iran, which has so far been restrained, will have a hard time staying away if the drone attack escalates into a full-blown war between Israel and Lebanon.