With the war heading into another winter and little sign of progress on the battlefield, some of Ukraine’s allies “see” an end to the war with Russia, not without concessions, causing concern in many Western capitals.
“Fatigue” with the intractable conflict has prompted some Western allies to seriously discuss how a negotiated end could take shape, according to officials who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.
On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is among those who resisted supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, He told ZDF television that now is the time to discuss how to get out of the war more quickly.
However, everyone makes it clear that any decision must be made by Kiev and that no one is pressuring Volodymyr Zelensky into negotiations.
It is difficult to expel the Russians from the lands they have occupied
But also there is no indication that Russia is backing down from its objectives, the prospect of negotiations still remains distant. Although Kiev’s surprise invasion of Kursk dispelled the impression that the war had reached a stalemate, there are no immediate prospects of expelling Russian troops from the territories they have occupied.
Although Moscow is struggling to advance, its missiles have destroyed large parts of the energy infrastructure from Ukraine, raising fears about how the country will cope with this winter.
No end to Zelensky’s pressure
Zelensky, however, is expected push again for NATO and EU membership, economic and defense agreements, and continued supplies of more advanced weapons as part of its “victory plan”who is expected to present it to Joe Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month.
He also wants to brief US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on his plans.
Two riddles require a solution
A negotiation to end the conflicts must solve two puzzles: The how will ensure that Ukraine will not be vulnerable to a future Russian attack; while at the same time to reassure his allies that he will not be drawn into a direct conflict with the Kremlin.
The reflection on the last question is the main reason why the allies are putting on the brakes in the use of long-range weapons in Russia, but also in the possibility of Ukraine soon joining NATO.
The bitter legacy of the Minsk agreements
Any negotiations will also need to overcome the bitter legacy of the Minsk agreements struck after Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
For Kiev and its supporters, the agreement in question, which was signed seven years before Moscow’s full-scale invasion, suggests the dangers of a possible start of negotiations with the Russians.
“Putin will regroup”
Zelensky warned that Putin will again use the time any ceasefire gives him to regroup and eventually strike again.
A European defense minister also noted that it would be politically difficult for Zelensky to sign any territorial concessions while Putin’s goal of subjugating Ukraine as a whole remains unchanged.
Furthermore, it would make sense for the Russian president to wait and see who wins the US election and what the policy will be, he said.
“Yes to territorial concessions” if they join NATO – EU”
Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any territorial concessions, with 55 percent of respondents rejecting the idea, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those who strongly oppose land concessions drops to 38% if Kiev becomes a NATO member and the European Union under the agreement.
naftemporiki.gr
