The Russian counterattack to recover parts of it Kursk Lost by Ukrainian forces after a surprise cross-border attack is ongoing but has not yet gained momentum.
Ukraine freed her attack Last month, it seized dozens of settlements, a move that surprised even Kiev’s allies. But from the start, observers said it was unlikely to be able to sustain its gains.
Geotagged video shows that Russian units have retaken some villages, but the situation remains fluid. Both the quality and number of Russian troops deployed to the region are unclear, and reliable reports from the front lines are few and far between.
Zelensky’s attitude
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the start of his counteroffensive from Russia and says he plans to send 60,000 to 70,000 troops to the Kursk region. But he said Friday that the Russians “have not yet had any serious successes. Our heroic soldiers are holding on.”
The US estimated that Russia would need up to 20 brigades – about 50,000 men – to drive Ukrainian forces from KurskBut Defense Department spokesman Lt. Gen. Pat Ryder said Thursday that Russian actions so far have been “marginal” and analysts have not seen the kind of mass or quality that could quickly dislodge the much smaller Ukrainian force.
Some high-level units appear to be taking part in the Russian counterattack. Geotagged video showed elements of the elite 51st Airborne Regiment taking part in an attack on Thursday. But the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that few of the Russian teams at Kursk “consist of units with combat experience”.
Initial indications are that Russian forces may try to isolate Ukrainian troops near the town of Korenevo before launching a larger-scale counteroffensive. A Ukrainian officer involved in the Kursk operation told CNN on Friday that the Russians had captured about two kilometers (an estimate shared by Russian military bloggers) on the western edge of the zone that the Ukrainians captured last month. The officer said poor communications were hampering their operations. In a video posted, the Russian flag, as well as the Wagner flag, can be seen being raised in the village of Snahost. But the officer said the situation had stabilized and there was heavy fighting in another nearby village.
A new attack route?
There are also indications that Ukrainian units may be developing a new attack route in a different part of Kursk, near the town of Veseloe. This may be intended to distract Russian forces. “By launching surprise attacks across poorly defended borders, Ukraine can pursue an operational-level guerrilla war to support an overall strategy of attrition,” says Robert Rose of the Modern Warfare Institute at West Point.
Despite Russian counter-offensives concentrated on Kursk and mounting Ukrainian casualties, Zelensky insists Kursk storming is necessary and worthwhile and slowed the Russian advance in eastern Donetsk, where the city of Pokrovsk is under immediate threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to fully capture four regions in eastern Ukraine that he already partially controls, and most of the fighting in the war has centered there. Zelensky told a panel in Kiev on Friday moderated by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that Russia’s advantage in artillery ammunition in the Pokrovsk region had been reduced from 12 to 1 to 2.5 to 1, which he attributed to the success of the Kursk campaign. “The speed (of the Russian advance) in the Donetsk sector was even higher before the Kursk operation. And not only in Donetsk (region), but in the entire eastern part,” Zelensky said.
Although Russian momentum slowed in the first week of September, no significant units were withdrawn to fight at Kursk, although some were moved from less contested areas along the 1,000-km (621-mile) front line. The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing the goal of progress in Donetsk over regaining lost Russian territory — for now.
Source: CNN
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