Ethereum price action has significantly underperformed traders’ expectations over the past few months. Ethereum is currently stuck in a downtrendwith its price falling 23% in a 30-day period. This slowdown is in stark contrast to the hopes of many ETH investors who were expecting a bullish surge. after the release of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
However, technical analysis suggests that Ethereum’s recent performance it is not uncommon for cryptocurrency as it appears to mirror a similar pattern seen in 2016.
Ethereum maintains similarities with 2016 price movements
Despite the price concerns, a deeper look at Ethereum’s historical price movements suggests that the current situation may not be as strange as it seems. According to ongoing analysis by popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 2016 when viewed on a monthly candlestick chart. This repeating pattern became even more apparent after the conclusion of August 2024, with Ethereum closing on a bearish candlestick, mirroring the same outcome in August 2016.
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In isolation, this would likely mean nothing. However, as Cowen pointed out, this pattern has been consistent throughout 2024, dating back to January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed monthly candlesticks in the same way it did in 2016 for eight consecutive months. As such, this could provide insight into how Ethereum could continue to perform throughout the rest of the year.
#ETH / #USD The monthly candles continue to follow 2016 perfectly.
If it continues to happen, it would suggest #ETH It is green in September and then red in October-December.
So in 2025 #ETH turns green for a while pic.twitter.com/G8WtDwQlWY
-Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
In 2016, Ethereum finally saw a massive 19,000% rally that saw it hit $1,590 for the first time. If this continues to happen like it did in 2016, investors can expect a green monthly close for Ethereum in September and then three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this repetition of price action continues past December 2024, Ethereum will eventually enter a notable price rally above its current all-time high. This would lead the fervent Ethereum bulls to the much-needed profitability they have been waiting for.
Path to $5,000?
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, down 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mirror the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum could persist throughout the rest of the year. However, not all hope is lost for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that could trigger an upward recovery.
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Ethereum price is sitting at a crucial support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level just above $2,400. A significant bounce off this level could signal the start of an uptrend, leading to a close above its monthly open in late September. A surge for ETH above $3,000 to $4,000 and then $5,000 is still in the books.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com