As exit polls show, one of the most important upheavals in Germany since the country’s reunification has been confirmed, as the first estimate of the result by the ARD immediately after the polls closed for a new government, giving a clear victory to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia and second place behind the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) in Saxony.
Specifically, in Thuringia, the AfD is leading with 30.5% for the first time since the Second World War, confirming the latest opinion polls, followed by the CDU with 24.5%. In third place is the newly formed Zara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) with 16%, while the Left follows with 12.5%. The parties in the ruling coalition are being swallowed up, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) reaching just 7% and the Greens and the FDP just below the threshold to enter parliament, with 4% and 1.3% respectively.
In Saxony, the CDU appears to be in the lead with 31.5%, the AfD with 30% and the BSW with 12%. The SPD has 8.5%, the Greens 5.5% and the Left 4%.
In Thuringia in 1929, the Nazis participated in a government for the first time
The two protagonists
The key figure in Thuringia is the far-right Björn Hecke, who was convicted for Nazi slogans and gestures, but his views are still very popular among Thuringian voters.
In Saxony, the key figure on the far right is Georg Urban, the AfD’s vote leader, a hydraulic engineer by profession, more moderate in his public appearances than Hecke, but equally tough in his positions.
Immigration…
Voters went to the polls today with their eyes on immigrants, and especially on those who commit serious crimes in Germany, such as the 26-year-old Syrian who killed three people with a knife and injured eight others 10 days ago in Solingen. After that, and under the threat of being swallowed up by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Olaf Solz announced stricter measures for immigrants. The announcements actually “coincided” with the first deportation of illegal immigrants since 2021. Yesterday’s special flight to Kabul contained 28 Afghans convicted of serious crimes – including the man who raped a 14-year-old girl in 2019 near the city of Ulm.
…And Putin
The “winners” of today’s election will likely include Russian President Vladimir Putin. AfD and BSW may be at opposite ends of the spectrum, but they are unpretentious in both their pro-Russian and refugee policies.. The Kremlin is systematically trying to influence Germany’s domestic political scene and tonight it may have reason to celebrate.
Cooperation scenarios
In any case, and given the fragmented scenario, the formation of government alliances for the next day should be an extremely complicated matter.
If the “doctrine” of excluding the AfD from state governments is maintained at all costs, we may see the most paradoxical collaborations, such as that between the CDU and the BSW. However, if the AfD wins at least 1/3 of the seats in the state parliament, it will be able to block decisions that require an increased majority of 2/3, such as the appointment of judges. At the same time, at the federal level, the AfD manages to remain firmly in second place in the polls a year before the parliamentary elections, and a first place or two tonight will give it a strong boost before 2025, while at the same time demonizing it even further in the eyes of many voters. The percentage of citizens who categorically opposed any cooperation between other parties and the far right is already gradually decreasing. The picture will be complete on the 22nd of this month, with the elections in Brandenburg, where the far right is also ahead.