Europe is turning to the right. And this now affects the two largest countries: France It is Germany. In the third, Italy, the extreme right has already consolidated itself.
In France, far-right ultranationalist forces have made the biggest gains. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally swept and doubled her numbers over liberal President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance, who called early parliamentary elections after the fiasco.
And in Germany, the far-right AfD has emerged as a second force, despite scandals over its alleged links to Chinese and Russian espionage and the party’s leading candidate’s “washing” of Nazism.
The strengthening of far-right extremists and Eurosceptics in the European Parliament comes, in fact, in an extremely unstable phase on the other side of the Atlantic, as the prospect of a return to the White House of Republican Donald Trump would also lead the EU to a situation extremely complicated.
Soltz’s problem
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD had the worst electoral result in its history to date and saw “the back” of the far-right AfD. The SPD lost voters to all other parties, but especially to those who did not vote this time. A sign that many are disillusioned with the SPD – not feeling better about the other parties. This is also reflected in the fact that three-quarters of voters say that the SPD promised a lot as a government, but gained little for the citizens. And the SPD has the “Soltz problem”.
Only 23% think Olaf Solz is a good chancellor. Even among SPD supporters, only 64% believe so. And in the list of the most influential German politicians, Scholz currently ranks 9th.
The chancellor must also feel partly responsible for the failure. The Germans also blame him for his lack of leadership.
Macron is in trouble
Emmanuel Macron often repeated a phrase: “Europe could die”.
The warning with which the French president wanted to highlight the dangers for the EU coming from outside – through Russia and from within due to the rise of the far right – did not catch on in his country. After his party’s collapse in the European elections and Le Pen’s victory, Macron made necessity a priority and called early parliamentary elections in two rounds, at the end of June and beginning of July.
It is undoubtedly a risky move, as the French president tries to obtain a new internal political mandate for the remaining three years of his term at the Élysée Palace – and prevent Le Pen from coming to power.
The result of the European elections in France once again showed the rise of the extreme right, which, with its more moderate behavior, became electable to large sections of the population.
Can Le Pen really succeed the pro-European Macron, who will no longer be able to run in the next presidential elections in 2027, after two terms?
In any case, Le Pen was confident in her initial reaction to Macron’s announcement: “We are ready to take on governmental responsibility,” she said. The party wants to “end mass immigration, prioritize purchasing power and revitalize France”.
The Franco-German axis is splitting
The data from the European elections have placed the traditional conservative leaders of the EU in a great dilemma, who decided months ago to break the “cordon sanitaire” in relation to the extreme right and Europhobes, reaching out to some of these parties, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni . But all they achieved was to “baptize” the extreme right in the European “Siloam reservoir”.
And now they see the traditional Franco-German axis collapsing, as it is dominated by two weak politicians who not even two in ten of their citizens trust.
It is possible that this weakness will also be observed in the election process of the four leadership positions in the new Commission: the Commission Presidency, the European Council, the European Parliament and the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy.
The German Ursula von der Leyen immediately rushed to give him the “gift”, aspiring to continue as head of the community’s executive power. She would have to be nominated by at least 15 of the 27 leaders, whose countries would have to represent 65% of the EU’s total population, which continues to be seen in light of von der Leyen’s flirtations during the campaign with far-right Meloni . , as it must also be voted on by the European Parliament in a secret voting process.
Two “lame ducks”
In a few days, at the EU Council, Chancellor Soltz and President Macron will also open their cards to von der Leyen. But with both leaders now in the twilight zone, as “lame ducks”, their initiatives may not be convincing enough. They will hardly be able to act like European kings. Why are they now “naked”…