If someone didn’t know much about her Great Britain and was just following the election campaign, which has been going on for some time, would paint a strange picture for the country, observes the Economist. At first glance, you would think it consists almost entirely of small, quaint towns and suburbs. Party leaders pass through beautiful cathedral cities like Chichester and Winchester, towns like Bury and Harpenden and seaside locations like Brighton, Lancing and St Ives.
He would also think that Britain is an overwhelmingly white country. The latest censuses for England, Wales and Scotland, carried out in 2021 and 2022, showed that in 140 of the 632 electoral districts, white British people made up less than 2/3 of the population. However, the leaders of the Conservatives, Labor and Liberal Democrats managed to visit only 4 of them in the first two weeks of the campaign. If they had chosen constituencies at random, they would have visited twice as many, notes the Economist. Parties focus on white voters, but they don’t talk about them. Why;
Because no political party would openly appeal to white British people – a tactic associated with the far right. But they know that white voters (as different as they are) have some common characteristics. And they are vital to the outcome of the general election – more so than their numbers suggest. And this is because they are more likely to vote.
White voters are older and more likely to vote
The Electoral Commission estimates that 87% of eligible white voters are registered to vote, compared to 80% of Asians and 72% of blacks. Demographics and economy partially explain this discrepancy.
White British people are older than average – the average age in England and Wales is 45, compared to 40 for the general population – and are likely to own their own home. Older citizens with relative economic comfort reach the polls more easily.
They easily change parties
The majority ethnic group also appears to be extremely relaxed in their vote – that is, they can to easily change party choice. In 2019, the Conservative attack on Labor’s “red wall” in the north of England and Wales won many seats with large white populations, including the country’s most ethnically homogeneous seat, Workington, where 97% of the population was White British in the census 2021.
On the other hand, as a group, British citizens who belong to ethnic minorities tend to vote consistently for Labour. Ipsos calculates that – at least in opinion polls – among ethnic minorities, the proportion of those who say they will vote for the Labor Party has never fallen below 50% since 1996.
White voters are not stable. They switched to the Conservative Party in 2019 and 2020, but then had no problem turning their backs on it.
Different priorities
An analysis of polls over the past 6 weeks by the Economist suggests that white and ethnic minority voters in Britain have similar, but not identical, priorities.
Despite public health system (NHS) and the economy come first and second for both groups, more white voters see the healthcare system as a top priority, possibly due to their older age.
They also classify immigration and defense higher than that of other voters and lower unemployment. The first two issues occupy too much attention from party leaders. And yet no one is talking about white voters. But everyone probably moves with them in mind.