This week could mark a pivotal moment in the first quarter of 2024 for the entire crypto market and for the two biggest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to major central banks, led by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. from the USA. . (Fed), get ready to announce your interest rate decisions.
According to crypto futures exchange Blofin, these announcements will set the tone for monetary policy in the coming months. The impact of safe-haven sentiment led to a pullback in BTC and ETH prices, with traders expressing greater optimism towards BTC.
Bitcoin Price Movement Range Projected at 9.78%
According to a recent online analysis report Disclosed by the exchange, crypto traders expect BTC’s price movement range to reach 9.78% in the next seven days, with a projected range of 20.33% in 30 days.
However, despite the expected volatility, the report indicates that traders remain bullish on BTC in the medium to long term.
Asymmetry analysis suggests that price declines and pullbacks are expected to induce volatility, but the duration of this round of pullbacks is expected to be relatively short. Risk aversion to macroeconomic uncertainty is seen as the main trigger.
The gamma distribution of the latest dealers supports the expected wide range of BTC. price fluctuations, with range peaks around US$65,000 and US$75,000. As the quarterly close approaches, market makers’ influence on BTC price movement is gradually recovering, providing support during price dips but making it challenging to break above the $75,000 level.
Furthermore, on-chain data shows a decline in cash investors’ enthusiasm for purchasing BTC, although the number of Adresses Holding more than 100 BTC continues to increase, as seen in the chart above. The reduced number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC suggests that significant holders decided to sell at BTC’s new highs.
Despite caution about possible price fluctuations, the hedging effect contributes to the increasing possibility of BTC price stabilization, making BTC ownership a favorable choice.
Bearish sentiment dominates first-month options for Ethereum
According to the report, similar to BTC, traders expect relatively high levels of volatility for ETH in the near term, with projected price movement ranges of 10% in seven days and 20.32% in 30 days. However, the report suggests that traders are less optimistic about ETH’s future performance compared to Bitcoin.
Furthermore, Blofin concludes that bearish sentiment dominates options in the early months, while bullish sentiment remains favorable in later months. Blofin emphasizes that expectations of rate cuts could support the Ethereum Pricebut the price of Ethereum tail risk indicates “increasing pessimism” regarding significant events impacting the price of ETH, with Ethereum spot ETFs seen as a potential trigger.
Finally, Blofin explains that the high leverage of altcoins has long been a “source of risk” in the cryptocurrency market. The recent price crash has led to the liquidation of many highly leveraged altcoin positions, resulting in lower annualized funding rates for perpetual contracts.
This deleveraging altcoins, along with its relatively small market share of less than 20%, helped mitigate risk and contribute to market stability, according to the report. However, despite the general decline in altcoin leverage, speculation in meme coins continues.
Bitcoin’s price is currently at $62,500, reflecting a significant decline of 7.5% over the past 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum is trading at $3,276, experiencing a 6.8% drop during the same period.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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