Greater “speeds” are expected in the coming years in the storage industry energy in the Greek market, with existing planning referring to investments exceeding one billion euros over the next three years and in fact in terms of urgency.
The “study” by the government and the market is based on the worsening of the problem arising from the growing green production capacity, which in the absence of corresponding demand translates into increased cuts, which in turn significantly reduce the revenues of RES producers, putting , ultimately, doubts about the sustainability of the energy transition as a whole.
OR “shift” to energy storage through batteries and pumping economy is based on what underlines the new National Energy and Climate Planthat “the development of sufficient power and capacity of storage systems is a necessary condition for greater penetration of RES in the electricity production mix”, without however, as stated by market sources who spoke to “N”, this is not sufficient to promote a project of this size, where there are already delays in the integration of storage systems into the country’s energy mix, placing additional pressure on an already tense situation.
As an indication, it is important to note that the “forecasts” of cuts in green electricity production speak of 3.5% this year and 5% in 2025, with the footprint in the financial flows of RES producers being based on calculations carried out by executives market, estimated at several million euros. At the same time, the banking sector executives, although they assure that the financing flows continue normally without recording red loans from RES investors, nevertheless the problem exists and relevant scenarios are prepared with a certain interruption factor incorporated to examine the flow of income over time.
ESEK objectives
On this basis, energy storage is the necessary “fuel” for the energy transition to advance, without, of course, eliminating the problem of the imbalance between supply and demand, the correspondence of which will come to “justify” ESEK’s ambitious objectives for the progressive transition of the Greek economy to “net zero” by 2050. The new National Energy and Climate Plan increases the target for storage systems by 2030 to 4.3 GW for batteries and 1.7 GW for pumped storage, with total investments of 3.6 billion euros by the end of the decade.
Another element that reveals it strong global mobilitybut also the market “trajectory” for economies of scale in the storage sector is significant cost reduction in a few years. According to market players who closely follow the relevant numbers, the cost of the battery (speaking only of the container) fell from 600,000 euros/MW 4 years ago to 200,000 euros/MW, with offers being presented even at levels of 120,000 euros/MW, without, however, being a representative market price at the moment.
The Balkan market
Similar, if not faster, speeds are found in the Balkan markets, with Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary already evaluating storage tenders for stand-alone batteries, but also in combination with RES stations.
Specifically, Romania held a tender for a total capacity of 240 MW for autonomous storage stations and storage in RES projects, Bulgaria followed suit with two tenders totaling 300 MW and one in development for 1.5 GW for 2-hour batteries, while Hungary implemented a tender totaling 440 MW.
In all cases, there is a combination of autonomous batteries and “placed” RES projects, with market executives commenting that these markets present particularly positive growth prospects in the specific sector, a fact that is also “read” by Greek companies, without yet having any specific business activity, mainly in the storage area.
The delay in execution Final Connection Offers in the projects qualified in the first two competitions, the consequent delays in the implementation of the projects, the uncertainty in revenues arising from the participation of projects in the electrical markets and the “elephant in the room”, financing from banks, are the main “thorns” and challenges for investors, ultimately testing the strength of individual business plans.
It should be remembered that for projects from the first and second competitions that have been awarded to the electrical space, a declaration of readiness must be delivered in September 2025 and be ready for operation by December 2025, as provided for in the “specifications” of the Recovery Fund covering the operational and investment aid they receive. In the case of the third tender, the respective deadlines were set for the submission of the connection activation request by January 31, 2026 and for entry into operation by April 30, 2026. Otherwise, and as long as there is no extension, the line financing will be cancelled.
At the same time, uncertainty regarding the revenue that a battery storage project can obtain from its market share – especially in the case of commercial projects – makes banks cautious in proceeding with project financing, even speaking of a “red line in terms of commercial projects’. It is also indicative, as “N” sources say, that more than a year after the first storage tender, the first two project financing contracts that were “transferred to it” are only now being signed. ” by two banking institutions in the country. In this context, foreign investors, according to market sources, cannot be excluded from choosing to “exit” from the Greek market through the sale of any assets that have passed the aforementioned competitions, under the weight. of the difficulties they encounter during the licensing process of their projects which, despite the certainty resulting from the “formula” of the competition, makes any project execution calendar a “blank letter”.
Pumped savings are gaining ground
After all, on this basis, as market sources report, the companies that participated in the first and second competitions applied “Aggressive” offers with low pricesdespite uncertainty persisting regarding the actual revenues from batteries resulting from their market share.
It should be noted that so far the format of competitions for autonomous batteries has been implemented by two thirds, bringing together the interest of the domestic and foreign markets. Waiting for the completion of the third tender scheduled to take place in the immediate future with the auction of 200 MW, thus completing the total value of 900 MW for autonomous batteries through competitions.
Although in the case of the third competition there is a clear geographical determination regarding the projects that can participate, however, as the same sources state, the participants’ strategy will remain the same. Successful candidates receive investment and operational support for their projects, with a total investment of 180 million euros.
At the same time, the political leadership of the Ministry of Environment and Energy will pursue legislative regulation to provide licensing incentives to existing or mature RES projects in order to integrate a storage system. In this sense, it intends to act on the promotion of autonomous batteries, intending as a whole to install another 1.5 GW of batteries with fast track procedures, in order to “alleviate” the system from overproduction of RES.
The regulation in question appears in the bill that was submitted to Parliament yesterday afternoon and is translated, taking into account an average CAPEX of 200,000 euros per megawattin investments of around 750 million. A third measure that should further increase the sector’s turnover is the subsidy program for the installation of storage systems in companies, with a total budget of 160 million euros. The agenda also includes reversible storage where, as reported by market players, significant investment interest has been registered, led by PPC, which plans six new projects in the next period.
Indicative of the growing investment interest are the numbers resulting from the submission of applications for storage licenses to the Waste, Energy and Water Regulatory Entity for reversible storage projects, where since the beginning of the year to date around 4,187 megawatts have been captured for 21 projects.
Positive omens
Despite the challenges that accompany the development of the battery industry both at an endogenous level and in relation to the global green transition project, three key factors, according to market analysts, “mark” the day ahead with a positive sign.
The first parameter concerns, as mentioned above, the even greater drop in battery CAPEX, which takes them to even more competitive levels, as happened in a course with photovoltaic technology.
The second parameter that signals favorable conditions for the operation of battery storage systems are the fluctuation forecasts of “commodities” (see natural gas) in the period 2025-2029 which prescribe high prices and, therefore, high compensations for storage units. storage, acting on a marginal price market (paid for by offering the most expensive technology that enters the system);
The third factor concerns the improvement and clarification of the institutional framework in our country, paving the way for prospectively higher “speeds” in the sector and with purely “commercial” (merchant) storage projects. The above confirms in the eyes of investors the special importance of securing a position from the beginning, recognizing the significantly greater benefits that arise compared to later, when the income, under the weight of multiple projects, will be shared among many more .