What targets in Iran will it attack? Israel; Will it hit oil or nuclear facilities, ignoring US President Joe Biden’s exhortations? Or will you bomb some buildings or bunkers to eliminate important Iranian leaders? Perhaps the 86-year-old spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, thus opening the way for a struggle for power and why not the overthrow of the theocratic regime?
The questions are many, but the certain one is how Israel will not leave the missile attack unanswered from Iranduring which the famous “Iron Dome” failed to intercept several missiles that hit military installations.
In theory, four could be the Netanyahu government’s targets: The main forces supporting the Iranian regime, such as the Revolutionary Guards, military installations and oil and nuclear installations.
Combination of objectives
For Israel, however, the ideal would be a combination of all objectives. A devastating attack on oil rigs and refineries would throw the Iranian economy into crisis, and not for a short period of time. Last year, Iran had about $35 billion in oil revenue. If the Israelis attacked the terminals, they would put the country’s entire economy in a difficult position. This would mean a 90% reduction in the sector’s export potential. Such a deal would bring the country’s economy to its knees. Without oil revenues and given the dire economic situation, the Iranian population could even revolt, creating major problems for the regime.
But even without these revenues, Tehran will not be able to support its “proxies” in the region – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. With limited resources, the Ayatollahs would have to make a choice: look inward to save their regime or outward.
Effects on the global economy
But if Israel attacked an oil-producing country that controls around 5% of the world’s crude oil, it would mean an increase in the price of a barrel, with notable consequences for the European economy as well. The recipients of Iranian oil and natural gas are certainly not in the West, due to the European and American embargo, but first and foremost in China and India. But if global oil availability falls by 5%, large buyers will turn to others and this means that international prices will rise. Some experts speculate that it could reach US$100 a barrel. And this is without Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz for some time, which could raise the price of oil up to 250 dollars per barrel, exploding the global economy.
Nuclear attack?
An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could also delay the development of nuclear weapons, but would likely lead to the spread of radioactive material that could also affect neighboring Arab countries, with consequences for Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and to Saudi Arabia. Risks to be assessed by Israel and Washington.
The third objective would be to destroy Iranian military bases. Something the Israelis proved they can do last April, when they hit sets of Russian anti-aircraft missiles protecting nuclear facilities.
Two thousand kilometers separating Israel and Iran is a lot, and only with the help of the Americans and the in-flight refueling of their planes, could the Israelis carry out operations of this type. Israeli aircraft will also have to fly over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq, and the risks are not negligible.
Criterion is the American election
Military analysts in Washington, however, estimate that Israel will initially limit itself to low-intensity attacks and then, after November 5th and the American presidential elections, there will be a decisive response, based, of course, on the electoral result.
According to the Financial Times, Israel and Iran have just assumed responsibility for the “October surprise, and Trump could be the big beneficiary”.
The United States has already helped prevent an Iranian attack” and, in the event of an attack by its Israeli ally, “it will be difficult for them to stay away”, estimates Haaretz.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well have succeeded in drawing both the United States and Iran into a “trap.” For Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, perhaps the biggest risk is political.