For the first time since August, Donald Trump has an advantage over Kamala Harris in the Economist’s statistical model for the November presidential election.
The latest forecast gives the Republican candidate a 54% chance of returning to the White House – a 6-point increase from last week. As highlighted, although the electoral battle continues to be a “derby”, the tide seems to be tilting towards Trump.
Over the past month, national polls have shown a steady narrowing of the gap between the two candidates. Initially, when she assumed the Democratic nomination, Harris also secured a clear lead of 49% against Trump’s 45% (on average) in the polls. Basically, he managed to rally the Democratic base, which had become disillusioned with Joe Biden’s insistence on remaining a candidate despite his apparent health problems. But while Harris’s percentages remained unchanged, Trump’s rose to 47%. Some research even shows it ahead.
He wins the popular vote, loses voters
The nightmare that Hillary Clinton lived in 2016 seems to haunt Kamala Harris as well. Although the Democratic candidate has a 74% chance of winning the popular vote (that is, obtaining more votes nationally and a higher percentage), she appears to be losing the electorate, according to the Economist model. The two candidates are tied in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump leads by two percentage points in Arizona and Georgia.
According to the Economist model, Harris needs a lead of at least 2.5 percentage points nationwide to win over a majority of voters. Remember that in 2016 Clinton had a 2 percentage point advantage nationally (almost 3 million more votes than Trump), but lost.