In an analysis shared on X, crypto analyst Patric H. of CryptelligenceX outlines seven reasons why investors should be optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory this week. “How can anyone be pessimistic here?! BTC broke the weekly downtrend, closing above key levels, and some people are still asking for less than $40K?! Sorry, bears, you clearly missed the fundamental changes of the last two weeks,” he says.
#1 Mt. Bitcoin Gox Refund Deadline Extension
The extinct exchange Mt. Gox filed a request to change the refund deadline, which was approved by the court. The new deadline for repaying remaining creditors is now set for October 31, 2025, a full year later than previously scheduled for October 2024. This extension eliminates immediate market selling pressure of approximately 44,905 BTC (about $2 .9 billion), which was anticipated to flood the market.
#2 China’s Economic Stimulus
China is expected to issue $325 billion in bonds to stimulate its economy. At the same time, cryptocurrency exchange OKX launched a fully licensed trading platform in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), offering a legal path for Chinese investors to engage in cryptocurrency trading under the jurisdiction of the UAE. Patric H. predicts: “Chinese money will enter crypto in Q4.”
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#3 Bitcoin exchange reserves decline
Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to dwindle as institutional investors and whales accumulate the cryptocurrency at unprecedented rates. This trend indicates a shortage of supply on stock exchanges, which, combined with increased demand, could lead to a supply shock. “Eventually, this will cause a supply shockleading to higher prices in due course”, notes the analyst.
#4 Increase in Bitcoin whale accumulation
On-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin whales are accumulating assets like never before. Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, recently commented: “The current market volatility is just a game in the futures market. Royal whales move the market through spot trading and OTC markets. This is why on-chain data is crucial.”
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He added that these new whales are unlikely to be sold until substantial liquidity from retail investors enters the market. “See how new whales are ferociously stacking Bitcoin; this market has never seen so much accumulation”, he emphasized. Notably, the lack of correlation with the US spot ETF inflows suggests that these could be strategic institutional accumulations.
#5 Trump is leading in the polls
Political forecasts indicate that former US President Donald Trump is gaining popularity in swing states ahead of the next elections. According to the most recent data from Polymarket, Trump is designed to win all seven key swing states. Patric H. reminds readers: “Trump is pro-crypto; Elon Musk will lead a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
#6 S&P 500 as a Trailblazer
The S&P 500 index is trading at a higher level, historically signaling positive momentum for Bitcoin and crypto. “There hasn’t been a time in history when Bitcoin and the altcoin market didn’t match the performance of the S&P 500,” Patric H. points out, dismissing skepticism with: “But ‘this time is different’… yes, of course. ” The correlation between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies suggests that bullish trends in stocks could spill over into the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector.
#7 Seasonality
Historically, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been the most optimistic period for Bitcoin, especially in halving years. “Bitcoin and the crypto market tend to outperform all asset classes in a halving year,” argues the analyst.
Supporting these fundamental reasons, technical analysis also paints a positive picture for Bitcoin. Patric H. highlights that Bitcoin closed above its weekly downtrend line, signaling a possible reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency remains firmly above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a critical support level. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator made a bullish crossover for the first time since April, often interpreted as a buy signal.
“Yes, there will be setbacks from time to time. But from now on, the dips are for buying, as the market structure has clearly changed from a downward trend to an upward trend”, concludes Patric.
At press time, BTC traded at $68,397.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com