After the death of Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar, The question remains as to who will succeed him.
However, according to experts, the new political leader who will be called to replace Sinuar will be based outside the Gaza Strip. At the same time, your brother ChineseMohammed, He is expected to take a more prominent role and lead the war against Israel in the Palestinian enclave.
In discussions about his new leadership, the Hamas it should take into account not only the preferences of its main supporter, Iran, but also the interests of Qatar, where all the main candidates for its political positions currently reside.
Hamas is again leaderless in less than three months
Sinwar, the “mastermind” of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, was killed in action on Wednesday. It is the second time in less than three months that Hamas has been without a leader. His predecessor, Ismail Haniya, was assassinated in Iran in July – presumably by Israel, which did not take responsibility.
When Sinwar replaced him, he merged military and political leadership in Gaza in his person. But it doesn’t look like this will continue with the next leader. After more than a year of heavy attacks by Israel, with thousands of Hamas fighters killed and senior Hamas figures inside and outside Gaza wiped out, it is unclear how the group will respond to the latest blow.
Deputy of Sinuar, Khalil Al Haya, considered his likely successorseemed defiant today when he said that Israeli hostages will not be released until the Israeli army withdraws from Gaza and the war will end.
How will the new leader emerge?
In the past, Hamas quickly and effectively replaced its fallen leaders. The Shura Council is responsible for selecting the new head representing all members of the organization in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora. This means that the new leader will be able to participate in the ceasefire negotiations even if he is not in Gazawhere the group’s fighters still hold dozens of Israeli hostages.
In addition to Haya, who is Hamas’s main negotiator, Khaled Meshaal – Haniya’s predecessor – and Mohammad Darwish are also likely candidatesthe president of the Shura Council, who is not well known in the outside world, according to analysts and a source close to Hamas. The source said the organization would have to inform Qatar – which has played a major role in the so-far fruitless peace talks – as well as other capitals before making its decision.
“In two” Sinuar’s responsibilities
Ashraf Abuelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, hopes that Sinuar’s responsibilities will be divided between two people – one will take on military affairs and the second will take on political positions, international contacts and policy development.
“Iran is Hamas’ strongest ally, it supports it with money and weapons, and its desire is the key to knowing who will succeed Sinwar,” said Abuelhoul, editor-in-chief of the Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram. He said he expects Hamas to meet its main demands in future ceasefire negotiations: that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza and stop the war. But he could show some flexibility on other issues, such as the details of a possible exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
With Shinwar’s death, Hamas leadership temporarily passed to Haya, located in Qatar. Due to the war and communication difficulties, it is unclear whether Haya can have daily contact with fighters inside the enclave and thus let the armed wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, have the first word.
A Hamas source said Haya is not expected to face any problems in his role as “de facto leader of Gaza”. He noted that Haya maintained good relations with the military wing and was close to both Sinuar and Haniya.
Akram Atallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he hoped the armed wing would respect Haya’s authority, even from abroad. He also expects Mohammad Sinwar to take on a more prominent role both in the armed wing and in Hamas in general. Veteran commander of the Al Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar is rarely seen in public. He is wanted by Israel and has survived several assassination attempts.
Sources: AMPE, Reuters