Israel has “settled the score” with the man who planned the horrific terrorist attack of October 7th. Yahya Sinuar is dead. But Hamas is not dead yet and the war is certainly not over.
This was said by Benjamin Netanyahu himself, although he was also quick to address the citizens of Gaza, stressing that this could be “the beginning of the end” of the war. Sinwar’s assassination follows the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniya, in Tehran in July and that of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last month. It was undoubtedly the strongest blow against the terrorist organization since the start of the war. But what does this mean for Gaza?
Yahya Sinwar died brutally in the ruins of Gaza, like tens of thousands of victims of the war he had started a year earlier. In a clash with an Israeli patrol in southern Gaza on October 17, the leader of Hamas was killed. The massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which he ordered, changed the fate of Gaza and the trajectory of the Middle East, although not in the way he dreamed.
His sudden death will once again shake up the fortunes of the region, leaving Hamas headless and Israel able to claim that a fundamental war objective has finally been achieved. All of this raises the previously scarce possibility of a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza. And if that happens, there is a narrow path to de-escalation across the region, even with the war in Lebanon and the prospect of Israeli retaliation against Iranian missiles growing, the Economist assesses. But things could also go in exactly the opposite direction. The possibility of further escalation, warns Foreign Policy.
“Sinowar had unique characteristics,” Ghaith al-Omari, a former Palestinian Authority negotiator and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told FP. “He was someone who held a very powerful position in both the political and military wings” of the organization.
Your profile, beliefs and decisions
Cool, ruthless and knowledgeable, as leader of Hamas in Gaza since 2017, Sinwar dominated the group’s military wing and was one of the main architects of the bloody October 7 attack on southern Israel, along with Hamas military chief Mohammed Dave , who was reportedly killed in an Israeli air strike last July.
Sinuar assumed leadership of the organization’s political wing following the assassination of Ismail Haniya, further consolidating his power. U.S. officials told reporters they believed he had long had the last word in negotiations for a ceasefire agreement and the release of the hostages.
Previously, he headed Hamas’ internal security unit, responsible for tracking, torturing and killing Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel and those who violated Islamic moral laws.
It is estimated that he spent years planning the terrorist attack of October 7, 2023. Since then, he has been hiding in an underground labyrinth of tunnels, communicating with his minions through handwritten notes and cursors and avoiding traceable cell phones . Hidden in dirt and darkness for much of the past year, he seemed to have as much control of events as world leaders did in their plush offices.
It was at the top of the Israeli army’s (IDF) hit list. In the end, it wasn’t absolute power or high-tech intelligence that won him over, but a chance encounter. According to initial information, he was with two other men at night near Rafa. He was spotted by an IDF foot patrol accompanied by tanks, which opened fire. The patrol did not look for him and his body was identified the next day, when a drone inspected the half-demolished building where the shelter was located.
Sinuar believed that an attack on Israel would mark the beginning of the end of the Jewish state. An enforcer for Hamas since the movement’s founding in the 1980s, he spent 23 years in an Israeli prison after being convicted of murdering four Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel. He was freed in a prisoner exchange in 2011 and began planning the massive attack.
How will Hamas react?
How Hamas reacts in the future will largely depend on who succeeds Yahya Sinwar. On the military side, a possible candidate would be Yahya’s younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar. Young Sinuar is believed to be as ruthless as his older brother, but he has no “weight”. Possible choices from the political wing include Khalil al-Hayya, a member of the Hamas Politburo and one of the group’s senior negotiators in Doha, and Khalid Mashal, a longtime senior Hamas official. The latter, who has not lived in the Palestinian territories since he was 11 years old and divides his time between Doha and Cairo, is seen as more susceptible to external pressure than Sinwar, which could provide an opening for negotiations. However, it is unclear how this will translate to Gaza, where it is not under militant control.
Hamas’ relationship with Iran, its main supporter, could be complicated if Mashal becomes the new leader. Mashal supported a Sunni-led uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, which drove him away from Tehran.
Yahya Sinwar: Who will succeed him as leader of Hamas (if he can)
The opportunity for Israel and Gaza
Sinwar’s elimination could provide an opportunity for Israel to take advantage of the uncertainty and division within Hamas to accelerate the release of the hostages and decide to end the war. Israel, Arab nations and the United States could offer mass amnesty to remaining Hamas members who lay down their arms and stop fighting.
Israel should make clear its intention to withdraw from Gaza and avoid reoccupying the Strip in the near future. Only if this happens can efforts to stabilize and rebuild the enclave begin.
However, as expert Ahmed Fouad Alkatib at the Atlantic Council points out, the critical questions must be answered first:
- With whom can Israel and the Arab nations negotiate about the future role of Gaza and Hamas?
- Who within Hamas could have enough power to force the group’s members to release the hostages?
- Will Hamas split into small, disconnected groups within Gaza, or could an interim leader emerge to hold the organization together?
- Was Sinwar preventing more “moderate” elements of Hamas from making concessions to end the war, and could they now appear to stop the war he started?
Israel has the opportunity for both escalation and disengagement, and no one knows which it will choose. He could use this moment to “declare victory” and move toward a ceasefire/hostage agreement with a severely degraded Hamas. In this scenario, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would drastically reduce its presence in Gaza, focusing on Iran and its plan to change the balance of power in the Middle East. It is possible to see him trying to “end” the Houthis as well.
The first indications are that Netanyahu may be interested in precisely this outcome, which could open the door to more practical discussions about the future of Gaza’s reconstruction, involving international partners. It remains to be seen whether he will do so.