Israel is struggling to create strong actors on every possible front that has been opened in order to negotiate from a stronger position before the White House gets a new occupant next January.
This is the conclusion reached by a Reuters analysis, to which eight sources familiar with the thinking of the people who govern Israel contribute.
“The assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar, mastermind of the October 7 attack that triggered the war in the Gaza Strip, is a triumph for Israel. But Israeli leaders seek more than military victories: Strategic gains which will reshape the regional landscape in favor of Israel and protect its borders from future attacks”, states the international agency in its analysis.
And he adds:
“As the US elections approach, Israel relentlessly attacks Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and seeks to create de facto buffer zones and create an irreversible reality before the new US president takes office in January,” said the Reuters sources.
Joe Biden is expected to use Sinwar’s death to pressure Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza. But the Israeli leader may prefer to wait the end of the Biden Sr. mandatethere to try my luck with the next president, be it Kamala Harrisor Donald Trump (with whom Netanyahu had close ties).
But before considering any ceasefire agreement, Israel
- accelerate your military action wanting to push Hezbollah away from its northern borders,
- infiltrates the Jambaliya refugee camp in Gaza and
- He is also planning the response to Iran.
“There is a new landscape, a new geopolitical change in the region”, assesses David Schenker, former US Under Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs, who is now a senior member of the Washington Institute think tank.
“Before October 7, 2023, Israel was willing to tolerate a high-level threat, responding to rockets from the Palestinian militant group and other enemies with limited strikes,” says Shenker, adding. “No more.”
“This time, Israel is fighting on many fronts. It’s Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran is coming too.”
Great expectations
Israel’s ambitions are now much greater than short-term military victories, however important they may be, said the sources who spoke to Reuters.
The ground offensive launched in Lebanon last month aims to push Hezbollah some 30 kilometers from Israel’s northern border, behind the Litani River, and ensure that the Shi’ite militant group is fully disarmed after 30 years of military support from Iran.
They also want to expel UNIFIL
In doing so, Israeli authorities say they are implementing a United Nations resolution that aims to maintain peace in the region and protect its residents from cross-border attacks.
Security Council Resolution 1701 authorized the establishment of a peacekeeping mission known as UNIFIL to help the Lebanese army keep the area south of the Litani River “free” of weapons and soldiers.
Israel complains that UNIFIL forces never gained control of the area from Hezbollah.
Israeli authorities say the only way to enforce Resolution 1701 and ensure the safe return of some 60,000 residents evacuated from northern Israel is through military action.
“At the moment, diplomacy is not enough,” an Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters.
A Lebanese security official and diplomat who knows the situation in southern Lebanon estimates that, from what appears to be Israel I wanted to expel UNIFIL of the region together with Hezbollah.
The security official said that Israeli forces are fighting for access to strategic points where UNFIL bases are located.
“It’s their goal to clear this dead zone“, said the diplomat.
This could take a few weeks if Israel intends to clear Hezbollah positions and infrastructure.
On Monday, Netanyahu rejected accusations that Israeli troops were deliberately targeting UNIFIL peacekeepers, but said the best way to ensure their safety was effectively a temporary withdrawal from combat zones. Israel says Hezbollah has operated from locations within and adjacent to UNIFIL positions for years.
Negotiate from a position of strength
“We must resist the idea that Resolution 1701 was not implemented because of UNIFIL,” UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told journalists on Monday.
Any deal in Lebanon would also require Iranian “consent,” said a diplomat familiar with the situation in southern Lebanon. However, Israel says it does not appear ready to begin negotiations for any truce.
“They want to increase their advantages, so that they are in an even stronger position to negotiate”, said the diplomat.
Israel informed several Arab states last year that it also intended to create a buffer zone on the Palestinian side of the Gaza border. However, it is not yet clear how deep he would like it to be or how it will be applied after the war ends.
Israel’s continued attack on Jabaliya, an area that was the target of heavy bombing at the start of the war, has raised concerns among Palestinians and the UN that Israel intends to expel residents of northern Gaza. The Israeli military denies this and says it is simply trying to prevent Hamas fighters from regrouping for more attacks.
Israel (he said) will not agree to a permanent ceasefire without receiving guarantees that whoever governs post-war Gaza will be able to prevent the smuggling of weapons and supplies to Hamas.
Trump or Harris?
There are diplomats who suspect that Netanyahu is considering how a ceasefire could affect the US elections. Any progress could help Harris, while Netanyahu would prefer to speak with Trump, whose hardline views on Israel, the Palestinians and Iran align more closely with his own, they say.
“There is no reason for Netanyahu to stop his wars before the US elections,” said Marwan Al-Muasser, former Jordanian foreign minister and current vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He’s not going to give Harris any gifts before the polls.”
For now, Netanyahu appears determined to redraw the map around Israel to his advantage, expelling his enemies from the borders.
“He pocketed his victory, continues his wars and imposes a new (regional) status quo,” said the Lebanese political leader.
With information from Reuters