Crypto Analyst Egrag Provided Background analysis of XRP’s weekly price chart, suggesting the cryptocurrency is entering “uncharted territory.” Using historical data and focusing on critical technical indicators.
Egrag highlights significant changes in XRP’s trading behavior, emphasizing the exhaustion felt by the XRP community during this prolonged cycle. “This cycle has been extremely exhausting and super manipulative, especially when it comes to XRP. But don’t lose hope!” he states.
Why XRP is in Uncharted Territory
At the heart of Egrag’s analysis are two key indicators plotted on a weekly scale: the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 55-week simple moving average (MA). Both indicators are known for their responsiveness to price changes and have historically been indicative of changing market dynamics for XRP. The interactions between these moving averages, especially when they cross, are key in predicting potential bullish or downtrends.
Related Reading
Egrag identifies three types of crossovers in its analysis, each signaling different market sentiments. A bearish cross, marked by a red circle on your chart, occurs when the 21-week EMA crosses below the 55-week EMA, indicating potential downward momentum. ONE bullish crossindicated by a green circle, occurs when the 21-week EMA surpasses the 55-week EMA, signaling a possible upward movement. An indecisive cross, represented by an orange circle, marks periods where moving averages converge but do not cross decisively, reflecting uncertainty or possible market manipulation.
In Cycle A, XRP experienced a bearish cross followed by two rising crosses, with significant implications for its price trajectory. The period between the bearish line and the first bullish line lasted approximately 616 days, during which market sentiment gradually changed. In the middle of this cycle, there was another bearish cross about 140 days after the first bullish line, preceding the second bullish line that occurred 49 days later. This second bullish cross led to a explosive price movement. Egrag comments: “We had a bearish line, followed by two bullish lines – one mid-cycle and the second was explosive!
Related Reading
Cycle B presented a different scenario, featuring a bearish cross followed by a rising cross. The duration from the bearish line to the bullish line was approximately 763 days, indicating an extended period of bearish sentiment before the market moved. During this cycle, XRP narrowly missed a previous bullish cross due to a significant price drop, which prevented the moving averages from crossing over as they might have otherwise. “Mid-cycle, XRP narrowly missed the bullish line due to a large price drop,” notes Egrag.
Currently, in Cycle C, XRP behaves differently from previous cycles in both duration and complexity. From the first bearish line to the first bullish line, the cycle lasted about 441 days, longer than in previous cycles. Thereafter, there was a period of 399 days leading to a second bearish cross. In total, Cycle C lasted approximately 987 days from the first bearish line, making it the longest cycle since the inception of XRP.
Currently, the 21-week EMA and 55-week SMA are converging but have not crossed decisively, marked by an orange circle indicating an indecisive cross. Egrag expresses frustration with this development, stating: “Right now, both indicators (21 EMA and 55 MA) are in the orange circle – right on the edge of a manipulated bullish cross that we narrowly avoided. This is pure manipulation! ”
Egrag’s analysis suggests that Cycle C’s unprecedented length and deviation from previous patterns place XRP in “uncharted territory,” indicating that the market may be prepared for a previously unobserved outcome. “After analyzing all of these crossovers, my conclusion is that Cycle C is different from Cycles A and B based on the number of crossovers and the duration. We are in uncharted territory, so we are likely to witness something new this time,” he says.
However, Egrag remains optimistic about the future. He predicts the potential beginning of a “utility phase” for XRP, where the focus shifts from speculative trading to practical applications of the cryptocurrency. “In my optimistic view, I hope this is the time when the utility phase kicks in, allowing us to use our XRP instead of selling it!” he concludes.
At press time, XRP traded at $0.53.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com