“Regime change in Tehran”: since September 30 and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to Iranian citizens, we now know clearly what his strategic doctrine is Israel. Overthrow of the Islamic Republic in Iran and the advent of a completely different government, which will not be Israel’s sworn enemy.
“When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come much sooner than people think – everything will be different. Iran will prosper like never before,” Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized.
But also in United States There are now more voices calling for the implementation of a strategy that will lead to the collapse of the theocratic regime. “What is needed – and what should have started sooner – is a concerted and silent campaign by Israel, the US and any other allies willing to undermine and ultimately overthrow the Ayatollah’s regime in Iran.” , writes historian Mark Salman in Newsweek.
“Silent Subversion”
“Now that Iran has aligned itself directly with Russia and other enemies of the West, the time has passed for us to believe that the current regime in Tehran can be a constructive member of the world community. Iran has a relatively modern economy with an educated population. This makes it vulnerable to many levers – economic or otherwise – that can be silently used against the Tehran regime and weaken it”, says the American historian.
In a similar vein, the Atlantic Council believes that the United States needs a new Iran policy – one that includes regime change, but not traditional change. The American think tank suggests that the US should support the “mass democratic movement in Iran” much more actively so that there is “widespread internal opposition” that causes the overthrow of the theocratic regime.
“After the American fiasco in Iraq and Afghanistan, the term ‘regime change’ is not very popular. But in a country like Iran, full of people who yearn to be free, it’s a good term. Furthermore, it is the only effective way to end the threat this regime poses, not only to Israel, but to all nations trying to become part of the Western world,” notes Newsweek.
Amini’s “legacy”.
The protest movement in Iran born after the murder of the young Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini by the police for not wearing the Islamic hijab, may have been brutally repressed in the fall of 2022, but it left its mark on Iran. Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets for months to express their anger. According to a UN report, more than 550 protesters were killed, including 49 women and 68 children. Arrests exceeded 30,000. The investigation concluded that there were “crimes against humanity”.
For the NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR), based in Oslo, the 2022 uprising may have been suppressed “with a brutal response from the State”, but a “silent revolution” is sweeping the country. “Women refuse to observe what has become a symbol of the Islamic Republic’s oppression – the mandatory hijab,” reports IHR.
The changes in civil society after Mahsa Amini’s death are even more profound, highlights Soura Makaremi, researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research), in Paris. “A cultural revolution is underway. Within families, in the private sphere, hierarchical relationships change. The position of young women and girls is changing. Men’s behavior has also changed. They no longer respect their hegemonic position so much”, observes Makaremi, author of the book “Mulher! Freedom echoes from a revolutionary uprising in Iran.”
Another development mentioned by the author is of Iranian origin. “Society has left the hinges on which it was trapped in relation to power and has not yet returned to the gears of the theocratic system,” he says.
Spontaneous meetings are organized in the streets, songs in schools, graffiti on walls, posts on social media… Thanks to the scale of the different forms of protest that emerged after the death of Masha Amini, Iranians realized that there were many who challenged authority .
What helped the theocratic regime deal with the unrest was the fear of a power vacuum and the uncertainty of the unknown. Many Iranians want to get rid of the regime, but fear the anarchy that could follow.
Complete break
However, calls to boycott the recent presidential elections in June and, ultimately, the low turnout (49%) speak volumes of citizens’ break with the political system inherited from the 1979 Islamic revolution. Until the victory of the moderate Masoud Pezeskian who elected president, is an indication of the change that is developing in Iranian society and the internal conflicts.
The “problem” for the Ayatollahs is that as the regime becomes more moderate and compromises on some issues, it risks encouraging the masses to push for major changes. Although the clergy still wield considerable power, their power has also declined – in large part because the key spiritual leaders who founded the country in 1979 have died. In some cases, however, those who performed better religiously were sidelined in favor of those more loyal to the 86-year-old spiritual leader. Ali Khameneiwho has been leading the country for almost 35 years.
What will happen if Khamenei dies?
Khamenei is only the second supreme leader in Iran’s history. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died in 1989, Khamenei was president and top clerics rallied around him. Now that the clergy is in decline, the hard-line Revolutionary Guards will attempt to dominate all Iranian politics once Khamenei dies. Whoever succeeds Khamenei will be a weak cleric and therefore a puppet of the Revolutionary Guards.
However, the Revolutionary Guards face major challenges, especially from the country’s outnumbered regular armed forces, the Artesh.
Until now, the two armed forces have been held together by a joint command structure nominally subordinate to the Ministry of Defense but reporting directly to Khamenei. How the Revolutionary Guards and Artesh work together in the post-Khamenei era will be critical to the regime’s survival.