Oil installations, nuclear power plants, military bases that host missile launchers and even individuals constitute the four options that Israel considers as retaliation against Iran, according to analyzes by the Financial Times and the BBC.
When Iran launched missiles against Israel in April, his government Benjamin Netanyahu opted for a limited response, identifying an Iranian air defense system near Isfahan. The attack demonstrated Israel’s technological superiority but did not lead to escalation.
But in the wake of yesterday barrage of 200 missiles launched by Iran the Israeli response is expected to be less restrained, notes the FT and explains:
Current and former officials say Israel’s options include attacks on Iransuch as in missile launchers or oil infrastructures. And some even asked the most extreme scenario of attacks against its nuclear facilities.
One of the factors that Israel had to keep in mind when responding to Iran’s barrage last April was that Iran could call on its ally Hezbollah to launch rocket barrages against Israeli cities.
But Israel’s recent devastating offensive against Hezbollah has reduced its capabilities, according to Israeli officials. In recent weeks, Israel has killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, decimated his chain of command and launched a massive bombing campaign in Lebanon that has killed more than 1,000 people and crippled the group’s rocket and launch units.
The role of the USA
The US, which played a key role in detaining Israel in April, appears less likely to restrain its ally this time. Jake Sullivan, US national security advisor, said that Iran will face “serious consequences” for 200 rocket attack. He added that the US “will work with Israel to make this possible.”
The launch of Israel’s latest offensive against Hezbollah – which began last month with massive bombing thousands of whistleblowers of the organization, the death 30 people and 3,000 injured – gave a taste of the kind of options available to Israel’s military and intelligence services.
But given the scale of Iran’s recent fire, which targeted military and intelligence bases near Tel Aviv as well as installations elsewhere, Israel is expected to respond with direct strikes against Iranian targets.
“This doesn’t rule out other options – but there should definitely be a kinetic element in the Israeli response,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu and a fellow at the Jewish Institute for American National Security in Washington. The person briefed on the situation said that Several options are being considered, but the one that is “gaining ground” is a coup that will harm Iran economicallysuch as oil production facilities.
Israel on Sunday carried out a similar operation against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israeli fighters, supported by aerial reconnaissance and refueling planes, flew 1,800 kilometers – more than would be necessary to attack Iran – to bomb power plants and a port used to import oil and other military supplies.
“They will understand”
Amidror said the operation could be a “template” for an attack on Iran, although an attack on the Islamic Republic would be “more complicated.” It is also unlikely that this option will win the support of the US government, which would be wary of disrupting oil markets in the weeks leading up to the presidential elections.
One alternative, which diplomats said Western capitals were trying to persuade Israel to choose, would be target the Iranian missile launchers involved in Tuesday’s barrage. They argued that this would be seen as a symmetrical response and would be less likely to trigger a new cycle of retaliation.
Israel could also target senior executives of Iran rather than infrastructure. In his response to Iran’s missile attack, Netanyahu referred by name to several Hamas and Hezbollah leaders recently killed by Israel, such as Mohammed Daif and Nasrallah, warning that they had not understood “our determination to defend ourselves and demand a price to our enemies.” “
“Obviously, there are some in Tehran who don’t understand this either,” the prime minister said. “They will understand.”
Satellites and Mossad
With the help of American satellite intelligence and Mossad agents on the ground, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have a wide range of targets to choose from, notes the BBC, which summarizes them as follows:
Conventional military objectives: The most obvious target would be the bases from which Iran launched the 200 ballistic missiles. That means launch pads, command and control centers, supply tanks and storage areas. Israel could go further and attack bases belonging to the Revolutionary Guard, air defense units and other missile arrays. He may also have attempted to assassinate senior officials involved in Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Financial goals: This includes Iran’s most vulnerable state assets, its petrochemical plants, energy production and possibly maritime interests. But this is a measure that would further open the door to Aeolus against Israel in Iranian public opinion, as it would harm the lives of ordinary people much more than any attack on the military.
Nuclear: This is the big question mark for Israel. It is known that Iran produces uranium enriched well above the 20% necessary for the production of civil nuclear energy. Israel, and not only, suspects that Iran is trying to reach the point where it will soon be able to build a nuclear bomb. Sites on this list of potential targets include Parchin, the focus of Iran’s military nuclear program, research reactors in Tehran (Bonab and Ramsar), as well as large facilities in Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan and Ferdow.
Source: Financial Times, BBC
