Ballistic missiles, 181 in all, were launched from Iran and headed for Israel, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Israeli air defense, in cooperation with the United States and Jordan, intercepted most of them, resulting in only one death, a Palestinian, due to a rocket fragment, in Jericho, according to Israeli sources.
Iran, of course, “celebrates” the fact that it took revenge for the Israeli attack in which the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed. It even claims to have reached Israeli military bases.
The Iranian attack was expected, in fact the moment spiritual leader Ali Khamenei hid in a shelter, the intention to launch missiles at Israel became clear.
Instead, the Iranians will stop there: the missile attack was yet another message to Tehran’s allies that Iran “is here” and will continue to support them.
But the Ayatollahs have no intention of starting a full-scale conflict with the IDF, which could overthrow the theocratic regime. Of course, Israel would like them to continue, because Iran does not yet have an atomic bomb and the risks are now lower.
The question is to know what the Israeli retaliation will be: because there will be retaliation, without a doubt.
Prime Minister Netanyahu could use this opportunity as a pretext to do what his government and the Israeli military have long had in mind: teach Iran a lesson.
But they already have open fronts in Lebanon and Gaza and will be able to wait a while before turning against Tehran.
Netanyahu also has to deal with the return of terrorism, as demonstrated by the attack in Jaffa that claimed the lives of six innocent people. We will have to see to what extent Israel will be able to control the terrorists. But even if we are heading towards a new era of terrorist attacks, especially in Europe.
The government Netanyahu he would like to open a second front, especially because he knows very well that the Americans could help.
The strategic objective is common: fragmentation of Iran into four states: Iranian Azerbaijan, Khuzestan in the Gulf, Baluchistan and Kurdistan. But this will take time.
Right now, of course, America has presidential elections in 33 days, and a war between Israel and Iran could send oil prices soaring, increasing discontent among American voters. Analysts are already talking about more than 100 dollars per barrel if Israel hits the Isfahan refineries.
The Israelis also have too many open fronts. Eliminating Hezbollah will take time and they have neither the men nor the time to waste establishing a safe zone in southern Lebanon. Logic says that first Israel will try to finish the “work” in Lebanon, and then the conflict with Iran will follow. But the concepts of “reason” and the Middle East are incompatible…
