Does Israel have a role in Lebanon after the weakening of Hezbollah? The heavy Israeli blows – both to morale and operational capabilities – against the organization raise serious questions about whether the organization will be able to maintain its powerful role in Lebanon’s internal politics and resist a possible Israeli invasion.
Who is waiting to seize the opportunity?
“Hezbollah is very vulnerable. As a group that has been decimated, it is difficult to see it returning to normal anytime soon,” Mohanad Hage Ali, a Lebanon expert and senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera.
The organization, after the end of the 15-year civil war in 1990, consolidated its control over the political situation, leaving no room for other political and religious forces in the country.
The group’s philosophy resonated with Shiite communities, who celebrated when Hezbollah liberated southern Lebanon after 18 years of Israeli occupation in 2000.
As it accumulated power, wealth and weapons, it gradually became the dominant force in Lebanese politics and a factor of internal polarization.
On the brink of civil war
In 2008, reacting to a decision by the Lebanese government to deactivate the group’s private communications network, he turned his weapons against his Lebanese colleagues, triggering a confrontation that brought the country to the brink of civil war, further proof for those who called the group of State within the State, which prevented the Lebanese State from being strong enough to properly govern the country.
By dragging Lebanon into regional conflicts – often at the behest of its backer, Iran – Hezbollah has damaged its popularity domestically and deepened its rift with rival religious factions.
Time to “get your blood back”?
Now, these factions may try to take advantage of their apparent weakness to reassert their own dominance, experts say.
“The erosion of Hezbollah’s capabilities will likely embolden its rivals and anti-Iranian forces inside Lebanon,” said Imad Salamey, a Lebanon expert and political scientist at the American University of Lebanon.
There are already calls for Lebanon to elect a new president who is in no way aligned with Hezbollah.
On Monday, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was ready to deploy the army to the country’s southern border to implement a UN resolution that would end Hezbollah’s armed presence in the region.
Opportunity for Western interests
According to Salamey, a potential power vacuum could lead to civil strife and the breakdown of order – and could lead global players to exploit the chaos for their own interests.
“Political factions that have long opposed Hezbollah rule, particularly those aligned with Western interests, may see this as an opportunity to push for more radical changes, including greater alignment with the West,” he said.
Israel’s role?
But even if Hezbollah appears weak, Christian and Sunni factions will likely not be able to exploit its weakness unless they align themselves with Israel, Salamey argues.
During the civil war, Israel provided political and financial support to the right-wing Christian party Kataeb, which committed a series of massacres and human rights violations to combat the Palestine Liberation Organization.
This time, said Salamey, Lebanon it can be placed under an arrangement broadly similar to that in the occupied West Bank, where Israel cooperates with the Palestinian Authority to deepen its influence and occupation.
“The air occupation is enough to dictate the political and security arrangements (in Lebanon),” Salamey said. “(And) unlike the West Bank, Israel could find more allies and support in Lebanon, particularly from religious groups that have been marginalized under Iranian hegemony in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.”
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