Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 2024. Leveraging historical data, Astronomer provides a analysis via X, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra-bullish trend based on Bitcoin’s performance in September.
The cryptanalyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on Bitcoin’s unexpected positive performance in September. “September is about to end and, to the surprise of the general public, it looks like it will be green (by far), with the possibility of defining the greenest September of 2024, supporting our innovative thesis that we have been on for some time now.” , he writes.
Delving deeper into market sentimentthe astronomer observes a significant disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. “And although we are no longer the only ones defending the full thesis, the data is and continues to be data. And after close inspection, despite the conversation/analysis posts, the majority are still not positioned, have profited too early or will root for the drops and say that they are a gift for the reason they want it”, he explained.
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He further develops the sentiment within closed circles: “This observation comes not just from public posts or Twitter, but also from the set of paid groups they participate in to conduct these analyses. It’s not allowed to share names or details, but most groups are actually bought and cashed in early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the market’s hand appears to be working.”
82% chance Bitcoin is on the rise
The astronomer’s bullish thesis is based on historical data, particularly the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price. “The data analysis is quite simple here: every time BTC has had a green September, it was followed by at least three green months later, i.e. a green October, November and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since the inception of BTC”, he states, indicating a strong seasonal pattern.
However, he is quick to temper this with a critique of his methodology, admitting the potential pitfalls of low data samples: “Now, like I said, I’m not the biggest fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us only 67% confidence to say that the next three months will in fact be green (low data fallacy). But to add meaning, due to the binary nature of high/low, there is also uniqueness in the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, the fourth quarter was not green every month.”
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He further refines his thesis: “So when including exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret statement, using more data points, is that: ‘The direction of September determined the overall direction of the fourth quarter and if September is green and not red., a bullish (not bearish) fourth quarter occurred 9 out of 11 times. Therefore, if September closes above US$59,000, there is an 82% chance that the fourth quarter will be optimistic.”
The prediction sparked dialogue within the community. One user @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the potential for an unexpected recession: “If September turned out to be green, to everyone’s surprise, October could also end up being red, to everyone’s surprise.” The astronomer responded, reaffirming his confidence in historical trends: “Indeed, but that is not what we have normally seen. So I personally, as always, stick to the data.”
The astronomer’s analysis concludes on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of aligning with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. “As? optimistic? We’ll see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making quick money. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time, enjoying the market without stress and not having too many regrets about losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And that way, eventually (very soon), you will achieve your goals.”
At press time, BTC traded at $64,622.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
