Peace and prosperity for its citizens. This is what Benjamin Netanyahu claims he wants to achieve by killing Nasrallah and eliminating almost the entire leadership of Hezbollah – an organization that has terrorized Israel for years. The same applies For the attack on the Houthis.
Its neutralization Hassan Nasrallahhowever, it is not simply the murder of a terrorist. It is a development that could lead the middle East in what until recently we considered unthinkable. The outcome of things, of course, depends on whether and how the headless one can further respond Hezbollahbut mainly about Israel’s next step and the way in which Iran will react, which until now has followed a tactic of relative self-containment.
July’s Game-Changing Hit
From October 8, 2023 (the day after the Hamas terrorist attack in southern Israel), when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with Gaza, Nasrallah believed he could maintain an endless but limited conflict . These unwritten rules of limited engagement lasted until July 27th. Then a Hezbollah rocket, aimed at an Israeli army base, missed its target and killed 12 children on a soccer field in the Golan Heights.
It was the opportunity he was waiting for Benjamin Netanyahu partially withdraw from Gaza and change the rules in the battle with Hezbollah. Israel assassinated Fouad Shukr, the group’s military leader, three days later.
It turns out this was not an isolated attack – a response to Hezbollah’s attack on the football field. It was the prelude to a series of attacks that took place in September, including the detonation of thousands of faulty radios and an airstrike campaign against the Hezbollah Arsenal.
THE Israel had decided months ago that, at the first opportunity, he would assassinate Hassan Nasrallah and completely exterminate his leadership team. When his intelligence services learned of the meeting at Hezbollah headquarters, Netanyahu gave the go-ahead for the attack. Chained and timed explosions – each one leading to the next – brought Nasrallah’s instant death in an underground bunker nearly 20 meters underground, the WSJ reveals.
The economist emphasizes that this attack was the result of 18 years of planning. Israel unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate him during the 2006 war and subsequently devoted much of its intelligence-gathering resources to infiltrating Hezbollah and its communications with Iran.
How Israel killed Hezbollah’s Nasrallah in an underground bunker 20 meters underground
Hezbollah reaction
With the death of the terrorist organization’s military leaders, Hassan Nasrallah’s most likely successor is Hashem Siafeddin. Until now, the organization’s chief financial officer has close ties to Iran, while it is said that it was decided years ago that he would be Nasrallah’s successor in the event of the latter’s death. He is married to the daughter of Hashem Soleimani, an Iranian general assassinated by America in 2020.
Whoever holds the reins will face the most precarious moment in Hezbollah’s four-decade history. It’s not just that Israel eliminated almost all of its military leadership, erasing years of experience in the space of two months. It is also that the group is humiliated in front of a Lebanese public that had already resented its heavy dominance of politics.
As the economist comments, the “Party of God” (that’s what the name Hezbollah means) is the main guardian of Lebanon’s dirtiest political class: its thugs helped suppress a popular uprising in favor of reforms in 2019 and two years later halted the investigation into a huge explosion in the port of Beirut. So could there be an opportunity to limit the organization’s influence in Lebanon? Would Tehran allow such a thing?
For years, Hezbollah has been a loyal servant of Iran. The group has also played a critical role in supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and provides training and guidance to other Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen.
These services gave Nasrallah every reason to hope that Iran would help him, especially after the humiliating murder of Ismail Haniya on its soil. That never happened. On September 28th, Mr. Ayatollah Ali Khameneithe supreme leader, announced that he would make an “important statement” on the events in Lebanon. When the statement was released, it was certainly not what Hezbollah expected.
But any expectation that the organization will suddenly give up and seek peace on Israel’s terms is completely unfounded. Hezbollah has already promised to continue the fight. It still has thousands of fighters, many of whom recently fought in Syria, demanding revenge. There will be pressure in their ranks to use them before they too are destroyed.
Hassan Nasrallah: Iran’s “most valuable asset” destroyed – who will succeed as Hezbollah leader
What will Israel do?
If anyone had any doubts before this murder, they don’t now. Israel apparently has no intention of stopping its military campaign.
The Israeli military wants to completely eliminate the Hezbollah threat and is likely preparing for an intervention in southern Lebanon. The IDF has already released footage of infantry training near the border for this purpose.
For the IDF, an invasion of Lebanon would be relatively easy. But the exit could – as happened in Gaza – take months.
Benjamin Netanyahu himself explained that “Nasrallah’s death is not enough.”
What will Iran’s response be?
Nasrallah’s assassination is an equally big blow to the Iran – who declared 5 days of mourning. It also took emergency measures, hiding its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran has a group of heavily armed militias in the Middle East, the so-called “axis of resistance”. In addition to Hezbollah, there are the Houthis in Yemen and several groups in Syria and Iraq. He could ask these groups to intensify their attacks on Israel and US bases in the region until he prepares his own response.
This response will likely send a message, on the one hand, without, on the other hand, leading to an all-out war that cannot be won, analysts who spoke to the BBC estimate.
But Economist analysts warn that the events of the past two weeks could reshape Iran’s security policy, if not immediately, then in the medium term. For decades, it saw militias as its main deterrent against Israeli or American attack. Now, with the most powerful militia eliminated, some Iranians have begun to argue that their country should build and test a nuclear bomb: if the conventional deterrent has failed, only the nuclear deterrent remains, they argue. If this doctrine prevails, we are headed for chaos. A global and nuclear chaos.
