Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris she has a small advantage over her Republican opponent donald trump in six critical US states and tied for seventh, according to a Bloomberg survey published today.
Its lead in individual states is within the poll’s statistical margin of error, highlighting that the November 5 clash could be decided by a narrower margin.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
In all seven states, Harris leads by 3 percentage points among likely voters, a lead 2 percentage points larger than last month.
In a sign of her newfound momentum, about 47% of likely voters think she will win the election regardless of whether they support her, compared with about 40% who said Trump would win.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month showed that Trump’s campaign promise to raise tariffs on imported goods has the support of a slim majority of voters, demonstrating his advantage on the economy over Harris.
A New York Times poll of swing states released on Monday showed Trump narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
According to the Bloomberg poll, Trump still maintains an advantage over Harris in terms of who would best manage the economy, but his advantage is diminishing. His lead was just 4 percentage points in the last poll, down from 6 points in August.
On immigration, Trump enjoys a 14 percentage point trust advantage among likely voters, although during a September 10 debate he reinforced the false claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating residents’ pets.
The survey sampled 6,165 registered voters in seven key states and was conducted online from September 19-25. Potential voters among them were 5,692. For both registered voters and likely voters, the statistical margin of error is plus/minus one percentage point in all seven states.
For individual states, the statistical margin of error was 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and 4 percentage points in Nevada.
Source: RES/MPE