Against the opinion polls that predicted the “castle” would fall, the Social Democrats (SPD) have won the elections in the East German federal state of Brandenburg for the eighth time in a row since 1990. However, Olaf Solz’s adventures do not end there.
In its analysis, Deutsche Welle points out that even after this result the survival of the coalition government in Berlin is under threat. And the rapid rise of the far-right AfD is confirmed.
The percentages
Dietmar Voytke’s SPD party guaranteed, according to the electoral commission, a percentage of 30.9%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second with 29.2%.
In third place with 13.5% is the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which managed to beat the Christian Democrats (CDU) in fourth place, who were limited to 12.1%, since its first participation in the elections in Brandenburg, obtaining one of the worst results in the local elections.
The Greens, the Left Party, the Liberals and the Free Voters failed to pass the 5% threshold to enter the local parliament.
At 72.9%, voter turnout in the local elections was the highest ever in Brandenburg, fuelled by a polarised climate and fears of a takeover by the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Will the coalition make it to Christmas?
The election result achieved by the popular local Prime Minister Dietmar Voytke could be seen as the kiss of life for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who sees the ratings of the ruling Social Democrats in freefall about a year before Germany’s parliamentary elections on September 28, 2025. The comments of the Vice-President of the Liberals Wolfgang Kubicki, who after the crushing defeats of his party in the three electoral contests in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, asked yesterday in an interview with Welt TV whether the governing coalition in Berlin will be able to last until Christmas.
Dietmar Voytke’s recipe for success was to focus on the Alternative for Germany, which had been leading the opinion polls for some time, but also to leave the path of the governing coalition in Berlin, and especially the unpopular Chancellor Olaf Soltz, out of the running. If the SPD were to lose the Brandenburg elections, the intense pressure on the Social Democratic Chancellor to finally get the three-party coalition in Berlin back on track would increase even more.
AfD and Wagenknecht winners
In addition to Dietmar Voytke, the big winner in the Brandenburg elections is the Alternative for Germany, which secured second place. It is worth remembering that at the beginning of September it took first place in the elections in Thuringia and second place in the elections in Saxony.
Both the head of the AfD in Brandenburg, Hans-Christoph Berd, and the party’s chairwoman, Alice Weidel, stated after the announcement of the first election results in Brandenburg that everything is going in favour of the Alternative for Germany and that they have time on their side.
According to DW, the winner of the points in the Brandenburg showdown was the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance, which came in third place and could become a regulator of political developments in the state of approximately 2.5 million inhabitants, with Potsdam as its capital. The reason is simple.
Until recently, the Social Democrats, Christian Democrats and Greens co-governed in Brandenburg. With the Greens now out of parliament and the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats holding 44 of the 88 seats in parliament, former and future Prime Minister Dietmar Voytke appears to have two options. Either he can secure the tolerance of the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance by making the necessary compromises, or he can seek to form a coalition government with it. The Social Democrats and the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance together hold 46 seats. In any case, forming a government in Brandenburg will not be an easy task.