Nearly 50,000 people in Europe are expected to die from heat in 2023, a level that is among the highest in the last decade, according to an annual study on the subject published yesterday on Monday.
“We estimate that 47,690 deaths (…) were due to heat in 2023, a mortality rate that ranks second in the period 2015-2023, behind the year 2022”, summarizes the text, published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine.
The study, carried out annually by groups at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, concluded last year that the heat was extremely deadly in 2022, caused more than 60,000 deaths in Europe.
This is an estimate
The accuracy of these numbers is not absolute, however: it is an estimate. For 2023, researchers estimate that deaths will range from almost 30,000 to more than 66,000.
In any case, what must be remembered is that the heat continued to cause thousands of human deaths — mostly older — in 2023, whose summer was the second hottest ever recorded in Europe.
Heat waves also in areas that are not used to heat
Heat waves, whose duration and frequency are worsening due to climate change, are likely to have a significant impact on mortality rates in southern Europe (Italy, Greece, etc.), but they are also affecting countries that are much less accustomed to heat, such as the Baltic States.
In France, the study attributes around 3,500 deaths to the heat, a number slightly lower than the figure released by the French public health service a few months ago.
The investigation, which drew on data from 35 countries, estimates that deaths would have been even higher if authorities had not taken action.
As its authors point out, European countries became aware of the level of danger when they were hit by the 2003 heat wave. It is estimated to have killed around 70,000 people in Europe, but exact comparisons with estimates for the current period are difficult for methodological reasons.
The authors see the reduction in mortality as a positive effect of current extreme heat preparedness plans, but stress that these policies are not sufficient on their own and must be accompanied by more active measures to prevent global warming.
Sources: AMPE, AFP