Infamous or infamous, Israel’s intelligence services felt that on October 7, 2023 they suffered the greatest humiliation at the hands of Hamas.
By Wednesday morning, they think they’ve gotten their revenge.
In less than 24 hours, two men on Israel’s top hit list were located and killed. where they felt most comfortable: In the fortresses of Tehran and Beirut
Officially, Israel was only credited the assassination of Hezbollah’s top commander Fuad Soukr, although he avoided mentioning the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran just hours later.
The two assassinations are seen by Israeli security authorities as a redemption, but also as a warning to the region that new “settlings” of open scores are to come.
On the other hand, for Israel’s enemies, the fear and “paranoia” that follows the (as it turns out) massive security gaps is growing as their determination to retaliate explodes.
“After the shock of the October 7 attack, Israel is slowly regaining the ground it had lost,” said Yaakov Amintror, former national security adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The killer repertoire
For years, he adds, Israel has prioritized and allocated resources to an intelligence network in Lebanon and Iran. But not (as much) in the Gaza Strip.
“And that was one of the causes of October 7. In a tragic irony, the Israel Defense Forces became much more prepared for war in the North (with Hezbollah) than in the South (with Hamas). “Now we are reaping the fruits of that effort.”
The murders they have been part of the Israeli repertoire for decades. Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated on the streets of Tehran, Hamas fighters poisoned in hotel rooms or have In pieces in explosion of some cell phone although there is a constant threat of attacks with drones or air strikes.
That was the method likely used against Soukr, when a handful of projectiles hit the building where he lived in the busy southern Beirut suburb of Daniyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold. As for Haniya, a NYT report says the attack was likely carried out with a strapped explosive device he had placed up to two months before in the hostel where he was staying.
O anxiety Hezbollah’s assessment of Israel’s infiltration capabilities had already reached levels of “complete paranoia” even before Tuesday’s attack.
Throw away your smartphones
For months, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s top leader, has been urging militants to throw away their smartphones. Many have resorted to older technology, such as buzzand landlines or… post offices.
Two people familiar with the group’s operations and several Hezbollah experts said the extremist group believes Israel has deployed a combination of voice-recognition surveillance software, artificial intelligence and spies on the ground, with deadly results.
And maybe he wasn’t wrong.
The scene at the Hezbollah house where Shukr was shot was dingy. The top floors of the building collapsed upon impact, causing extensive damage to an adjacent block and scattering debris and broken glass onto surrounding streets. Rescue crews struggled to reach the injured in an area choked with dust.
Nasrallah has dismissed such attacks in the past by arguing that they would do nothing to sway Hezbollah’s resolve. When a senior commander was killed on July 10, he simply declared that it was “natural” to lose one of these men.
Optimism
“We are in a battle against an enemy that possesses all the technology and the satellites of the whole world at your service,” he said, insisting that the number of fallen “martyrs” was not that high given Israel’s espionage capabilities. His team, he said, was “still in great shape.” But Israeli officials expect Nasrallah’s response to the death of his close adviser, Shukr, to be far less sanguine.
Hamas’s Haniyeh was probably much easier to locate after he attended the inauguration of Iranian President Massoud Pezhekian in Tehran on Tuesday. Speculation is mixed as to how his residence – reportedly provided by the Iranian state – was targeted, whether by a missile, an improvised explosive device or a small drone.
By Munich standards
However, according to Amos Yadin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence service, the end result was almost inevitable after the bloodshed of October 7.
“Everyone knows that Israel drew up a list of suspects for the 1972 Munich Olympics for Hamas,” says Yadin.
The retaliatory reprisals carried out by the Mossad against those it then held responsible – in an operation called “The Wrath of God” – lasted a decade and, operationally, extended across much of Europe and the Middle East.
“Israel is doing the same thing to those responsible for the October 7 attack. We will go from the top leaders to the last . . . terrorist,” Yadin added.
He emphasizes that after Haniya’s assassination, only two of the six top Hamas leaders are still alive.
With information from the Financial Times