Experts’ initial estimates of where his assassination will lead are conflicting. Ismail Haniya the war in Gaza Strip. Is an escalation inevitable or could we see Israel scale back its operations in that country?
Much will certainly depend on whether Israel will officially take responsibility for the neutralization of the Hamas political leader, but also on how Tehran will want to respond, given that the assassination took place on Iranian soil and even with Chania’s visit at the official invitation of the regime.
The positive scenario for a “window of opportunity”
If Iran and its proxies do not want to take things to extremes and a catastrophic regional conflict is avoided, then Benjamin Netanyahu may find a window of opportunity to drastically scale back operations in the Gaza Strip, some analysts say.
Netanyahu has vowed to wipe Hamas off the face of the earth, but so far its top officials have remained unharmed. Now he could claim a major blow to the terrorist organization, a major “victory.” If Israel takes responsibility, Haniya’s assassination will be its biggest attempt since the war with Hamas began.
While Hamas is being hurt, there would also be an opportunity for the Palestinian Authority to move forward, with the result that negotiations could continue within the UN framework. This is a relatively optimistic scenario, which is not shared by everyone.
LIVE: Hamas Leader Ismail Haniya Killed – What It Means for Developments in Gaza and the Middle East
The scenario of the total collapse of negotiations
While Benjamin Netanyahu now has political room to pull out of Gaza, there are fears that the assassination will further complicate efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement, stifling any progress towards de-escalation between Israel and its Iran-backed enemies.
Gerson Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator, told CNN that negotiations were already at an impasse before Haniyeh’s assassination and that the new developments would put the lives of the hostages still being held at risk.
It is unclear how long the Qatari and Egyptian mediators will allow “Israel and Hamas to be fooled,” Baskin said, adding that it may be time for the mediators to put a deal on the table and ask all parties involved to “either accept it or leave.”