The fuse had been lit for days. Now the Middle East appears to be on fire, with many outbreaks possibly uncontrollable.
After rocket that hit a field in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children, in an attack that points to Lebanon’s Hezbollah (which it denies) and Israel’s “response” with a coup in Beirut, He came the assassination of Ismail Haniya in Tehran. Are we heading full speed ahead for a regional explosion? Can there be an intervention that will put out the fire?
Hamas swears revenge. For its part, Iran declares that “Hania’s blood will not be wasted.” There was no official reaction from Israel. A far-right minister commented that “This is how you clean up the mess… the world is a little better.” The fact that the assassination took place on Iranian soil and while Haniya was an official guest of Tehran at the inauguration of the new president increases the risk of widespread conflict.
“Regional Retaliation”
Now everyone is waiting to see what the retaliation will be. It is unlikely to come from Gaza, analyst Brigadier General (retired) Assaf Orion told CNN.
“Hamas may find it difficult to retaliate from Gaza, so perhaps they will try to attack the West Bank or from there into Israel,” said Diane and Guilford Glazer, a senior fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies and director of the Israel-China Policy Center.
“The exterior is also an option, whether it be foreign targets or attacks from Lebanon/Syria.”
He also warned that Israel could face a broader regional response from the so-called “Axis” that has been created around Iran. Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis could participate in this “regional response.”
The worst-case scenario, of course, would be to directly involve Tehran itself – as that would inevitably lead to a regional war, which could drag all the major powers into a global conflict.
Iran’s options
The exact details of what happened around 2am local time in the Iranian capital will largely determine what happens next. What is probably more important, as BBC analysts comment, is the narrative that Tehran chooses to adopt.
While Iran’s initial reaction was cautious, with authorities announcing that an investigation would be carried out before making official announcements, an Iranian Foreign Ministry official then explained that “Haniya’s blood will not be wasted.”
“This is clearly a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and the supposed security bubble of the Iranian capital, regardless of how the attack took place. Haniya was their official guest and their role as a regional power will be undermined if they fail to ensure the simple safety of their visiting allies,” the BBC comments.
However, Iran “has suffered similar violations in the past. The killing of its top nuclear scientist, Iranian Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was met with immediate but restrained outrage in 2020.
The truth is that Iran’s options are limited and none of them are good,” the British network adds.
The US does not want escalation
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stressed that the US is ready to support Israel if it is attacked. He added, however, that he does not believe that war in the Middle East is inevitable.
“We don’t want to see that happen. We will work hard to ensure that the thermometer goes down and that all issues are addressed through diplomatic means,” the US minister said.
Asked specifically about Haniya’s assassination and what it means for developments, he stressed that he had seen the relevant reports about the assassination of the Hamas political leader in Iran, but declined to comment further. He also noted that he had not spoken to his counterpart Yoav Gald in the past 24 hours. “We will do everything to avoid a regional war in the Middle East,” he concluded.
All developments and their importance from the Nautemporiki live blog.