The Israeli-Lebanese border on both sides is guarded by troops on full alert. Airlines cancel flights fearing barrages of rockets and missiles from both sides. Diplomats work feverishly, even at night. Western and Arab authorities call for restraint. Even Iran says it does not want to expand the conflict (although it is ready to respond). The only disagreement is Turkey of an Erdogan, who as Israel comments, it reminds Saddam.
The scene that was set after the attack on a stadium in the Golan Heightswhich left 12 children dead and the Arabic-speaking Druze community in deep mourning, is explosive. Israel and the US stress that the attack was made with an Iranian rocket, which was launched from Lebanon and therefore there could be no one behind it other than Hezbollah. The terrorist organization, which has close ties to Tehran, denies any involvement and claims the attack was carried out by an Israeli anti-aircraft missile.
The Druze reaction
Until now, the Arabic-speaking ethno-religious Druze community seemed to have assurances from its patriarchs in Lebanon that it would not be targeted. This – perhaps due to a miscalculation – has not been followed through. How the Druze themselves react will also determine much about the future.
The Israeli retaliation so far has been “measured”. But everyone is preparing for something bigger and the question is whether it will be controllable and manageable. The slightest mistake, any miscalculation, any reaction that goes beyond the limits could lead to the declaration of all-out war between Israel and Lebanon. Such a development would plunge the entire Middle East into chaos.
The accident”
All parties involved officially declare that they do not want such a thing. But can they avoid it? The “accident” is always the biggest fear in such cases. Amos Hochstein explained it in simple terms. A native of Israel, the American official (who has experience mainly in the energy sector) was chosen by Joe Biden to play the role of “firefighter” on the border between Israel and Lebanon.
In a webinar last May, according to CNN, he stressed: “What worries me every day is that by a miscalculation, by an accident, someone runs over a bus full of children or some other kind of civilian target that could force the political system in both countries to retaliate in a way that leads to war. Although both sides probably understand that a larger or deeper war is not in the interest of either side.”
The equivalent of the “bus crash” occurred on Saturday night in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. A rocket landed on a soccer field. Twelve children, aged between 10 and 16, were killed while playing. We are closer than ever to Hochstein’s fear becoming a nightmarish reality.
“We are approaching the moment of all-out war against Hezbollah,” Israel’s own Foreign Minister Israel Katz admitted on Saturday night. “The response to this event will be proportionate,” he explained.
Pressure on Netanyahu
The United States supports “Israel’s right to defend its citizens against terrorist attacks,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, but made clear the US does not want “to see the conflict escalate.”
Can the Israeli response be “proportionate” without igniting the fuse of war? This will depend not only on the external pressure Benjamin Netanyahu will receive behind the scenes from Western powers to show restraint, but also on the pressure the Israeli prime minister will receive at home.
“We are tired of the exaggerated rhetoric and empty words accompanied by weak actions,” former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told CNN. “The only way to stop all this, the only way to prevent our enemies from hitting us… is to strike back. There is no other way,” he added.
For months, the international community has been trying to defuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. It is by far Iran’s most powerful proxy, with 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at the south.
Close to a direct Iran-US conflict?
David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned: “The conditions could trigger a situation we have never seen in this region: a major regional war, a direct Iran-US conflict.”
What gives us a glimmer of optimism? In the past 10 months, we have come very close to catching fire several times on Israel’s northern border. The Middle East has come to the brink of war on many occasions. But each time, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have backed down.