Kamala Harris holds a two percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the first Reuters/Ipsos poll since Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race.
In the last poll before Biden’s departure, the US president was two points behind the Republican candidate.
The new poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally accepted the presidential nomination, and Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he was dropping out of the race and endorsing Harris.
Harris, whose campaign says it has secured the support of the required number of voters, leads Trump 44% to 42% in national polls — a margin that is still within the 3 percentage point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
States, not the national rate, determine the outcome
However, it is important to note that it is not the percentage at a national level that determines the final result of the election, but rather the success of the candidates in 6 to 7 critical states, which provide the largest number of voters. This is where Kamala Harris will fight to regain the ever-decreasing trust in the Democrats. These states include Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and the entire so-called “Rust Belt”.
Jay de Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, is considered the “voice of the Rust Belt.” Kamala Harris’s vice-presidential candidate must therefore have a profile that can act as a counterweight and win over the working class.
We must not forget that in 2016 Hillary Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than Trump (48% to 46%), but in the end she was the loser of the election, after losing crucial states and falling behind in the number of voters.
Harris’s Trump Card
About 56 percent of registered voters agreed with the statement that Harris, 59, shows “mental acuity and is capable of rising to challenges,” compared with 49 percent who said the same about Trump, 78.
Only 22% of voters rated Biden that way.
Biden, 81, ended his re-election bid after a debate with Trump in which he stuttered frequently and gave incoherent answers.