On the eve of the tragic 50th anniversary of “Attila’s” martyrdom CyprusAnkara has closed a very large area in the Eastern Mediterranean with NAVTEX until August 5, prohibiting the passage of other ships.
The reason; A Turkish oceanographic vessel, the Akdeniz-1, will conduct scientific research in the area south of the Carpathians, which Ankara defiantly considers to be part of the Turkish continental shelf. Showing its intentions, the Turkish Defense Ministry officially announced that 50 Turkish warships – so many years since the invasion of Cyprus – will sail to the occupied ports of Megalonis, accompanying the Turkish president Erdogan. The ministry even published a video of warships, with the provocative phrase: “Don’t call me so vehemently, I may arrive suddenly one night”, threatening a new invasion!
Cyprus: Ankara sends 50 warships to occupied territories – “I can arrive suddenly one night”
Half a century has passed since the day when Attila’s Turkish forces occupied 37% of Cypriot territory, but Ankara’s policy has not changed. Quite the opposite! It is now threatening to occupy the maritime area around Megalonissos, defiantly violating all concepts of international law. Without even the Peru be a party to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982), which contains the definition and procedure for declaring and delimiting EEZs.
The “Blue Homeland”
Ankara is now focusing its energy policy on a broader geopolitical strategy to strengthen Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic location and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub, placing the country at the heart of regional energy trade.
Ankara’s strategy is expressed in the “Blue Homeland” doctrine, aimed at the neo-Ottoman restoration of Turkish maritime influence in the world.
Turkey’s goals are clear: to increase influence over its distribution and transmission plans natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean, making the Greek Cypriot system of energy cooperation difficult in every way.
The intimidating approach of the doctrine is functional for Ankara to reverse the unfavorable dynamics inherited by Erdogan, after years of Kemalist indifference to the maritime dimension of the state, and consequently to claim a leadership role in the region.
Turkish public opinion, in the wake of Erdogan’s “Turkey Century” narrative, has even shown enthusiastic support for a vision that aims to restore the greatness of the state, even without knowing the details in depth, as Constantine, director of the Philis Institute of International Affairs (IGA), says.
Cyprus deposits
The second Turkish “Attila”, combined with the so-called “Blue Homeland” doctrine, this time targets the very important deposits of Hydrocarbons that have been discovered in the territorial waters and EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus. In total, five natural gas fields discovered in the Cypriot EEZ bring Cyprus’ estimated reserves to 400–600 billion cubic metres. Natural gas discoveries in the 2000s and 2010s have transformed the Eastern Mediterranean region, offering European countries a potential alternative source of non-Russian natural gas. It is estimated that Israel, Egypt and Cyprus could together supply up to 300 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year to Europe for 15–20 years.
“Tool” the pseudo-state
Ankara is trying to exploit the pseudo-state in occupied northern Cyprus as a “tool” to get its hands on the deposits of the Republic of Cyprus.
Since 2011, Ankara has not even hesitated to sign an agreement with the pseudo-state to “delimit their respective continental shelves” in order to start exploration and drilling through TPAO, the Turkish national hydrocarbons company.
Most provocatively, the 2011 agreement allocates to Turkey certain areas internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus’ EEZ, for the exploration of energy resources in marine “parcels” numbered 1, 4, 5, 6 and 7. In addition, the pseudo-state in northern Cyprus claims the right to exploit the resources of “parcels” 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 12 and 13, with operations often outsourced to TPAO.
“Not only has Turkey not signed the UNCLOS convention, it also claims rights based on its continental shelf, in serious violation of Cypriot rights,” says Simon Henderson, an energy expert at the Washington Institute. “Apart from Ankara, the rest of the world recognizes Cyprus as an independent country, with the government in Nicosia having sovereignty over its entire territory,” he continues. “Such recognition infuriates Turkey, which has steadily increased its assertive presence in the island’s EEZ.”
It is therefore clear why Erdogan and Ankara will not back down from the “two-state solution” in Cyprus. A “solution” first formulated in 2020 by Erdogan, when he understood the importance of the natural gas fields in the Republic of Cyprus’ EEZ.
The Turks and Erdogan categorically reject the withdrawal of the occupying army from Cyprus. On the contrary, they demand, through various means, the acceptance of the presence of the Turkish occupying troops by the international community. In particular, the legalization of the 1974 crime and the occupying army.
In any case, the Eastern Mediterranean will continue to be a turbulent theater of tensions due to Ankara’s claims. It remains to be seen to what extent Turkey will be able to maintain these positions against international law, without provoking the wrath of the international community and especially the European Union.