Former President of the United States Donald Trump of course he will not attend your summit NATO in Washington, but his “shadow” will dominate. “He will almost sit at the table, as the evil spirit in the transatlantic relationship,” as the German Der Spiegel writes.
“The festive atmosphere is overshadowed by domestic developments in America ahead of the November presidential election: what President Biden will do and what are Trump’s chances of returning to the White House,” European diplomats say. “After Biden’s disastrous phone battle with Trump on June 27, the main question is how the American president will cope physically and mentally during the two-day summit. Biden’s age and health are not only discussed in the US: “Marcus Aurelius was a great emperor, but he botched his succession,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski wrote in X.
The anniversary summit would be a good opportunity for Biden to present himself as a leader of the West and dispel doubts about his physical and mental fitness. Images of a regular presence alongside foreign heads of state and government and their public support could give the Democratic candidate a boost. But the summit will be yet another test: the president’s every move will be closely watched. The final press conference on Thursday is eagerly awaited, where Biden He will also answer questions from journalists.
Is NATO as we know it coming to an end?
Donald Trump, who leads in most polls, is quite different. Trump not only claims he can end Russia’s war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He also threatens European allies that he will stop providing aid to NATO countries that do not increase their defense spending to 2 percent of GDP.
The US, Trump claimed during the debate with Biden, finances “almost 100%” of NATO’s budget. An exaggeration, of course, since the US’s actual share of the alliance’s military spending is almost two-thirds. Trump’s motto? A country that spends too little on defence will no longer be protected by the US in the event of a Russian attack. Instead, it would “embolden Russia to do whatever it wants,” as Trump put it in a campaign speech. Addressing the Europeans, he added: “You have to pay your bills!”
“Take Trump’s threats seriously if he is reelected to the White House,” said Mark Esper, Trump’s former defense secretary for a year and a half. “If Trump comes back into office, he will cut off American aid to Ukraine,” Esper told CNN. “That would collapse all Western aid. If you remove the center brick in Jenga, everything else would collapse…
Donald Trump’s threats hang like a dark cloud over the summit in Washington. “Article 5 is the cornerstone of NATO,” said Elizabeth Brautis of the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. “If the US fails to adhere to the principle that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all of us and that we defend it together, the core value of the alliance will have collapsed.”
NATO simply “will no longer be the NATO we know,” Brau said. Trump would not need to declare that he is withdrawing from the alliance — even a significant reduction in the American contribution would hit NATO hard.
Will this rock the session?
Experts from the Defense Priorities think tank, who met in Washington on the eve of the summit, however, have a more nuanced view. Even so, “Trump will not be able to avoid putting political pressure on Russia either,” they say, adding: “A new division of labor in the political-security field is inevitable: European NATO states will have to spend more on defense so that the US can expand its presence in Asia.”
The Republican National Convention begins next Monday in Milwaukee. But who can rule out that Trump will not intervene by Thursday to disrupt the NATO summit?
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