The Labour Party is on course for the biggest victory in its history and perhaps the biggest electoral majority Britain has ever known.
This is confirmed not only by polls, but also gross assumptions of Sunak’s top ministers as the Conservatives concede one defeat after another ahead of Thursday’s election.
One such minister is Mel Stride.
And he put it like this:
“I totally agree that where the polls are, tomorrow we will probably see the biggest Labour majority this country has ever seen.”
Analysts believe the minister’s admission was yet another desperate attempt to keep some voters in the conservative fold.
Afternoon
But it’s probably too late. The latest research shows inevitable results with a lead of around 20 points, while the final seat projection published today by YouGov shows Labour will win the biggest majority in British general election history.
The analysis predicts Labour will win 431 seats, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives winning 102. That gives Labour a majority of 212 seats. The polling institute says 89 seats are considered “corona letters” as the difference between first and second place is calculated at 5 percentage points or less.
Even at best, the result for the Conservatives is significantly worse than the party’s previous worst election result in 1906, when it won 156 seats, YouGov says.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to secure 72 seats and Nigel Farage’s party is expected to gain 3 seats, according to the poll.
“Work is back”
Even Sun’s abandonment of the Conservatives is seen by the Financial Times as yet another sign of impending electoral disaster for Sunak.
YouGov’s final MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory
Workforce: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result)
Con: 102 (-263)
Liberal Dem: 72 (+61)
SNPs: 18 (-30)
UK Reform: 3 (+3)
Chess: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)Fieldwork: June 19 – July 2https://t.co/JxacgEVIPW pic.twitter.com/g8G2mtbGTn
-YouGov (@YouGov) July 3, 2024
Indeed, Labour campaigners are criticised for over-emphasising that Labour is back, likely filling the Conservative camp with defeatism and damaging the morale of the party’s more “activist” members.
Never as long as I live
For your part and Keir Starmer is careful to appease the more conservative and Eurosceptic instincts of conservative voters.
Having long been accused that his lack of references to Euro-British relations may be masking a new flirtation with Brussels, he was quick to clarify on Thursday afternoon:
“Britain will not rejoin the EU in my lifetime.”
And indeed not only in the EU, but also in the single market and the customs union.
In recent days, the Labour leader has begun to speak more freely about what his party intends to do in power.
But with less than 24 hours until the polls open, Starmer and Labour are looking to avoid the mistakes they made in 2019, when they upset Leave voters by promising a second referendum.
The Tory collapse across the country means there are around 120 seats where the margin of victory could be less than 5 percentage points.
On a knife edge
Crafty Daily Mail, He detected this danger in time and mapped out the areas where Conservative voters could, with a last-minute trigger, save the Conservatives from total electoral defeat.
And indeed there is this danger.
Under Britain’s electoral system, a handful of voters will determine whether the Conservatives go from 146 seats in Parliament to fewer than 44.
As you can see, this could change Thursday’s outcome. from a very heavy defeat to political annihilation.