At an extremely critical crossroads is the Athens Stock Exchangewho is called to defend the 1,400 unit supportsin an environment low investment visibility and exogenous uncertainty. It is no coincidence that June “came out” with losses of over 1.8%, which made the second quarter total negative (-1.2%) and “cut” first quarter profits to +8.6% in the semester.
A potential loss of 1,400 units it is very likely that the land for the 1,380 – 1,360 units, which are the last lot before the average of the last 200 days, that is, 1,344 units. Strength at this level, although not currently under immediate threat, is considered absolutely necessary to maintain the long-term positive trend.
“Right now, the focus is more on holding the 1,400 level than on breaking above the multi-year high of 1,500, which is starting to look like… a ‘midsummer night’s dream’ and while we’re in summer,” comments reputable analyst Petros Steriotismember of the British Society of Technical Analysts.
The General Index, throughout the second 15 days of June, was maintained below the average of the last 50 daysconfirming the short-term negative movement, which is likely to continue this week. Especially as the lack of bullish catalysts dominates the national news, combined with the negative surprises of not being included in the MSCI watch list and the extraordinary taxation of refinery profits.
Stock market: the champion stocks in the June correction and the counterweights
The most important challenge, of course, is related to political situation in Francewhich was also confirmed in the first round of yesterday’s parliamentary elections, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right party gained a clear advantage ahead of the second round next Sunday (7/7). This situation undoubtedly deprives the Old Continent of the factor of political predictability in its second largest economy. With all that this implies for the markets.
New rise in.. . depth;
On the other hand, as rightly stated in your last report NBG Titles, the factors that recently led the General Index to highs of 1,502 points (close of the session on May 20) did not change substantially, remaining the same. Who are they; Political stability, attractive quoted valuations, resilient business figures, optimistic macroeconomics and greater liquidity, which is further enriched by successive deals.
If both of the above factors have already been priced into the market, then of course they still support it. positive narrative for the national capital market. Thus, subject to the easing of concerns about the European political scene, a gradual rapprochement to recent highs is not excluded, from which the current distance is estimated at -6.5%.
However, until that happens, an abundance of patience is needed, as the clouds over the Old Continent need to dissipate and investors gain greater visibility to be convinced to take on additional risks. Until then, nervousness and the prolonged volatility will continue to be the main attraction on Avenida Atenas.
“The upcoming meetings are awaited with particular interest, as the combination of international political developments and valuation fatigue constitute a strange cocktail that could immediately provide the answer to the “million dollar question”, i.e. in which direction the price range is moving, summarized in recent weeks,” concludes Mr. Steriotis.
General changes by month in 2024
• January +5.7%
• February +4.1%
• March -0.1%
• April +1.8%
• May -1.1%
• June -1.8%
On the Stock Exchange: Fund No. 2 on Intracom and… punishment ABROAD
(The text above is the product of journalistic research and does not constitute an invitation to buy, sell or hold any share)