French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire describes him as a “danger to the nation”. the left-wing party “La France Insoumise” in Jean-Luc Melanchon and urges his compatriots not to vote for his candidates in the second round of parliamentary elections, even if this could prevent far-right candidates from winning.
“For me, Insubordinate France is a danger to the nation, just as the National Rally is a danger to the Republic,” Le Maire told France Inter television. He accused Mélenchon’s party of anti-Semitism and violence.
At the same time, however, Le Maire called on voters in the government camp to vote for “social democratic candidates” if they are rivals to the far-right National Rally (RN). By “social democrats” Le Maire means the socialists, communists and greens, who also participate in the New Popular Front electoral alliance.
Instead, all left-wing leaders called for the crackdown on the far-right party. by Marine Le Penstressing that the Popular Front candidates who are in third place in the “triangular” districts – with three candidates in the second round – will withdraw, so as not to be elected the far right. “Not one vote, not one more seat for the RN,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “If the RN comes first and we come third, we will withdraw our candidate. We will withdraw our candidacy, in all circumstances, anywhere and in any case,” assured Melanchon.
In the same vein, the Socialist Party once again called for support for “candidates who defend democratic values” against the RN. “There is the extreme right on one side and on the other, everyone else. We must all campaign to defeat the extreme right”, emphasized socialist leader Olivier Faure.
The French Communist Party also aligned itself. “In all duels that pit a representative of the extreme right against a candidate from a republican party, communists are called without hesitation to vote for the latter. And if a communist candidate comes in third, he will withdraw so that the Republican candidate has the best chance of defeating the extreme right,” announced the French Communist Party.
Fear for the Popular Front program
At the same time, however, markets appear to be more fearful of the left’s economic program compared to that of the far right. Public spending and debt projections soar with proposals from the New Popular Front in relation to those of the National Rally. “On this side, everything shows that the markets will be able to breathe with some peace for now”, highlight market participants.
“The risk of a financial crisis, either in the summer or when the 2025 budget is drawn up and presented to the EU this autumn, will increase significantly if the New Popular Front takes power and implements its very ambitious and costly fiscal promises,” report experts from the Berenberg analysis house.
New debt crisis in the eurozone after the elections in France? (Why not
“The United Left program, which promises a ‘clear break’ with Macron’s policies and a series of measures to be implemented within 15 days, would be very expensive, with an additional annual cost of 25 billion euros in 2024, 100 billion euros per year by 2025 and 150 billion euros by 2027. “The result would be a fiscal explosion or a blow to growth if the left tried to finance it through higher taxes on wealth, income and companies, which in turn would cause serious fiscal sustainability concerns,” Berenberg analysts said. “The risk has diminished with the outcome of the first round, as it appears highly unlikely that the left will gain a majority and remain united after the elections to actually implement. such a radical proposal”, add the experts.
Less “disaster” from the far right
Experts even describe the result of the first round as less “disastrous” than expected, as the far right did not receive the very high percentages that opinion polls had discounted.
House Berenberg explains this directly in today’s analysis: “It’s no worse than expected: although the far-right National Rally (RN) won the first round of the French parliamentary elections, the second round on July 7th remains open.”
Le Pen’s party has made a major turnaround in recent years, abandoning its exit policy from the euro, stressing that it wants to change the EU from within and supporting some liberal economic measures such as tax cuts.
Parliament without majority
Most analysts even see a parliament in which neither the extreme right nor the united left will have an absolute majority as the most likely outcome. In this case, any (new) government would not achieve much. France would remain as it is, it would continue to be, of course, a problem due to the high public deficit and the problems of an economy that is losing competitiveness, but the difficulties would not worsen.
Experts from the Italian bank Unicredit consider this the most likely scenario: “A parliament without a majority remains the most likely scenario… No party will have a clear majority of seats and political fragmentation will worsen the current impasse, as the president cannot, under the Constitution, dissolve Parliament before a year has passed. Given that no party leader would be willing to accept a proposal to form a government under the threat of being quickly exposed to an impeachment motion, Macron could propose the formation. of a government of technocrats until there is another dissolution of parliament”, said the Italian. bank points.
But also from the French investment bank Natixis, they agree that “despite the enormous number of possibilities in the second round, our central scenario of a Parliament without an absolute majority for the extreme right remains the most likely and is becoming stronger. Especially since the left-wing coalition asked its candidates to withdraw if they were in third place, which is the case in around 100 “triangular” constituencies, say Natixis experts, well versed in French politics.