In the far-right constellation, France is now moving into the coming years, as the National Rally of Marina Le Pen and his “godfather”, Jordan Bardela are now clear the first force in the country.
Although it is not yet clear whether he will achieve an absolute majority in the new National Assembly before next Sunday’s second round, it is clear that nothing will be the same in France. And with the greatest responsibility belonging exclusively to Emmanuel Macron.
The French president made the same mistake as former British Prime Minister David Cameron when he called the Brexit referendum: in a sudden decision, he hastily called (and against the contrary advice of senior government officials) an early general election on the same night as his the countryside’s defeat in the European elections on June 9th. Macron believed he would catch his opponents by surprise and catch them off guard. Focusing on fear, he bet on a “conservative” reaction from the electorate, in favor of continuity for fear of a leap in the dark.
But the vote for the far-right National Coalition hid not only anger, but also popular acceptance: 82% of French people believe that the country is in decline, more than 60% feel in a state of cultural insecurity, considering how ” is no longer his native France”.
As far-right expert Nicolas Lebourg explains, the French, “faced with a ‘deinstitutionalized’ society, where relationships – family, work, trade unionism, housing – have loosened, heard the far right respond by promising protection to a part of the population, against the ‘others’.
“Let us be clear: the rise of the far right to power is the greatest danger facing Western countries. And today democracies seem to be disintegrating, they have been emptied of content to convince citizens. There is no need for generals or soldiers to invade presidential palaces”, says the German professor of philosophy at Princeton, Jan-Werner Müller, and one of the great theorists of far-right populism: “It is the political elites who seem to be abandoning democracy ”, writes Müller in his book “What is populism”, denouncing the opportunism of center-right parties “to copy slogans or even collaborate with the extreme right”.
The price of arrogance
As Le Monde writes, “Cameron and Macron are the result of the arrogance of leaders who are cynical enough to put the future of their country at risk.”
The election result could be described as the French Brexit, especially if it is accompanied by the withdrawal of the absolute majority in the second round by the National Rally. Of course, the election will not be a true Frexit, that is, an exit from the EU, much less from the euro. But, as with the British referendum eight years ago, it is a sign that France is turning in on itself, which will have powerful consequences for Europe.
Historian Patrick Boucheron speaks of a “sticky sense of inevitability,” a restlessness that gradually overwhelms, demoralizes and depresses. “In the short electoral campaign, emotions – and illusions – prevailed and not logic, which became unacceptable”
The far right now dominates against a dominant center-right that is eager to follow it and that is now even divided by the split of Republican President Eric Ciotti, who has embraced Le Pen.
Three blocks
Macron not only failed to stop the advance of the far right, but he proposed it at the beginning of his first term as president. With campaign rhetoric that bordered on verbal violence, the French president even threatened civil war in France if Le Pen’s party and the New Popular Front won. And what did he achieve? Watch his centrist and liberal faction crumble.
“The president killed his majority”, as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe rightly said, who is already thinking about the Élysées for 2027.
France is also now mathematically divided into three blocs: a far right, a left and a centrist. And its future depends on how much one bloc hates the other. Something that will be seen in the second round on Sunday, since there are three candidates out of 300.
This means that Marine Le Pen’s party could continue the absolute majority or not, depending on whether the remaining two blocs can (temporarily) stop hating each other and make common cause in supporting the Democratic candidates. The left has already done so, but not the center-right Republicans who came in fourth. Macron’s faction puts asterisks, stressing that it will support left-wing candidates “on a case-by-case basis.”
French elections: big victory for Marine Le Pen – What to expect from the second round on July 7
Keeping an eye on the 2027 presidential elections
If the far right does not obtain an absolute majority in the second round next Sunday, it will not govern, according to Jordan Bardela.
But what will happen then? Because any other choice is likely to lead to chaos. Something that Marine Le Pen would like, however, since her party will be seen as the only real opposition and therefore the alternative to the country’s impasses. This will also lay the red carpet for Le Pen’s presidential victory in 2027, taking advantage of Macron’s political decline in the last three years of his term.
Although the French president even called for a “democratic wall” against the far right in the second round, he convinced few of his real intentions. After all, after being re-elected in the Elysées for his second term, Macron broke all ties with the left by raising the retirement age from 60 to 64 and adopting Le Pen’s views on immigration.
“Micron” Macron
The French president – in many ways an “apolitical” leader of a “non-party” – won the Élysée twice thanks to the two-round mechanism, but he never represented more than one in four French voters. And not even the desperate bet to dissolve the National Assembly that he made on the night of the European elections dissolved the Gordian bond of his leadership. The party is now only the third political force in France and its room for maneuver – increasingly narrow – is linked to the divisions that the shocking elections forced to reconstitute, both on the right and on the left.
The powers of a “lame duck” in the Elysee Palace seem increasingly tenuous in the hands of a president clearly without a majority. In short, things have gotten very bad for Macron, whom the French already call “petit” (Micron), who is now certainly risking not so much his position as president, but his personal credibility.