The French vote today in parliamentary elections that could make history, with the far right closer to power than ever. These are early polls decided by French President Emmanuel Macron, after the watershed European elections, in a high-risk bet. More than a few have commented that he is betting on the future of France and Europe as he sees his popularity plummet.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardela’s National Alert (RN) has a clear lead in the polls – three weeks after his victory in the European elections. More than 2.6 million people out of France’s 49 million voters registered to vote by proxy, a sign of the high turnout expected in such a crucial electoral contest.
This is an election with two rounds and the majority of the 577 seats of the National Assembly will not be decided until the second round of voting next Sunday.
O election campaign lasted only 20 days and this also benefited RN, which emphasized an agenda focused on immigration, combating broader insecurity, as well as reducing taxes to address the cost of living crisis.
The RN wants an absolute majority – But the battle will be decided in the second round
Bardella wants to become RN’s first prime minister and his party is confident of winning dozens of constituencies in the first round. But he says he will only take power if the party wins an absolute parliamentary majority of 289 seats.
Once the first results are released on Sunday afternoon, the RN’s rivals will have to decide who to support in second-round battles across France in a bid to ensure an absolute majority does not happen.
If the polls are correct, many of Sunday’s elections will pit the RN against a hastily assembled left-wing alliance called the New Popular Front, which believes it can even win the election. In the latest opinion polls, it came in second place.
In previous elections, parties across the spectrum have rallied to keep out the far right. But the RN’s leaders have worked hard for years to shed their extremist image. What we have here is essentially a complete overhaul of the French far right, with Marine Le Pen even disowning her own father. The party’s leaders condemn anti-Semitism and any acts of hate and violence, while seeking to be open to the LGBTQ community.
Alongside policies aimed at giving French citizens a “national preference” in terms of employment and housing, they aim to reduce VAT on energy and allow people under 30 to be exempt from income tax. They condemn anti-Semitism and all acts of hatred and violence, while seeking to open up to the LGBTQ community.
The Macron era is over
President Macron’s Ensemble alliance is expected to face a serious hemorrhage of seats and Gabriel Attal’s days as prime minister appear numbered, although polls show that he remains among the most popular politicians in France.
“The Macron era is over,” said François Hollande. The former French president, who was once a mentor to Macron, is running again for parliament – now as a candidate for the New Popular Front.
However, even Macron’s allies are angered by his decision to call early elections. France would normally go to elections in three years. And in three years a lot could certainly change. The research takes place in a “busy” summer, as the country prepares for the Paris Olympics, which begin on July 26th.
The riddle of Bardela
Now the decision remains the same. The polls are open and Jordan Bardela could soon become Prime Minister of France at the age of 28. But for many he remains an enigma.