Countdown to the parliamentary elections, extremely crucial for all of Europe, in France. His sudden and, according to many, risky decision Emmanuel Macron Going to the polls after the overwhelming majority of European elections with the same result could put Europe on an extremely difficult path.
It has caught its allies by surprise and left markets reeling from the potential consequences of a National Alarm or a Left-wing government on the public finances and businesses of the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Citizens across the country are weighing the impact of the polls on their wallets and on issues such as immigration and security.
In an extremely short election campaign, Macron’s party is in a difficult position, not only in terms of polls. Here it comes in third, far behind the Popular Front and Le Pen’s National Rally.
It is said that the Rassemblement National can obtain around 36% of the voteswhile the United Left around 30%. Opinion polls give Macron around 20%.
Marina LePen has already raised the issue of limiting the president’s powers in defense and foreign policy. After all, Macron has invested heavily in this area. Let’s remember how much he talked about sending troops to Ukraine. Le Pen attacked the president’s handling of the economy, seeing him as anything but a reformer. She even questions his choice Thierry Breton as commissioner, saying that the French president has no right to make such decisions.
Also during the presentation of his program, the National Rally, he followed a very tough rhetoric. Initially it was not clear what will be done with pensions and taxation. At the same time, however, the president, Jordan Bardela, spoke of a governance model where the strategic positions “will be made in French. And only”. In other words, a person with dual citizenship is excluded.
The left-wing New Popular Front coalition, meanwhile, has presented itself as the only political force that can keep National Alarm out of power. On the economic front, it has called for a big increase in France’s minimum wage and higher taxes on the rich.
H… cohabitation
But the issue here is the electoral system in the National Assembly. There are 577 deputies. This means that any party that wants an absolute majority must obtain 289 seats. There are 577 French regions, so one deputy is elected from each region.
For someone to be elected in the first round, they must have received 50% of the votes. If no one gets it, then the top 2, and whoever has at least 12.5%, will go to the second round, on July 7th.
Hence the formation of coalitions, so that there is no major fragmentation in the voting process. In an unprecedented move, the Republicans, Charles de Gaulle’s historic party, decided to ally themselves with the National Coalition.
So here comes the question of the so-called cohabitation). Cohabitation in France is characterized by the sharing of executive power between a president and a prime minister of opposing political orientation. But the division of roles is not always clear. Cohabitation is an undeclared war at the top of the state.
The President may be the Head of State, but the Prime Minister controls the budget. So imagine how difficult it will be for Macron to have Bardella in charge. Furthermore, Macron may attend the Summits, but the Council of Ministers of the EU will probably be attended by ministers from the RN.