“We have experienced many wars over oil. But we have bigger wars ahead to see. And they will be used for food and water.” The warning comes from Sunny Ferghese, CEO of Olam Agri, one of the largest commodities traders in the world, and is accompanied by data.
Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, staple food prices have soared not only because the two countries are among the world’s largest grain suppliers, but also because 154 countries have erected a total of 1,266 trade barriers, in addition to tariffs.
The richest developed economies, but also two powerful emerging economies, China and India – that is, those that had the money and the negotiating power – wanted to fill their warehouses, to guarantee their needs, thus creating a huge imbalance of supply in the rest of the world. the world and demand.
Prices, which had already started to rise since the time of the Covid-19 pandemic and confinements, soared, with several producing countries, from India to Indonesia, drastically limiting or even completely blocking exports of oil, rice, wheat and other goods. . “It was the biggest mistake they could have made”, comments Ferghese. But they did. And the facts don’t change now.
And water scarcity in the foreground
The cost of living crisis – which is bringing the first political shocks to the developed world – is much more pronounced in the world’s poorest economies. And the problem is that these are precisely the economies that appear to face the most serious challenges from climate change. The problem of water scarcity is acute in some areas, as heat waves and periods of intense drought are more frequent and more severe.
Even in Greece, one of the largest construction companies, GEK TERNA, sounded the alarm on water scarcity and water infrastructure.
The pressure felt by young and old, in a period of instability and constant geopolitical tensions, will soon translate into new critical points. Wars used to be about the hunt for oil. Now, in the era of the “green transition” and persistent precision, they will be made for something much more “humble”. For the dish on our table.