“It seems that the president Emmanuel Macron created its own time… Waterloo”, writes the magazine “International Politics Quarterly” (IPQ). The assessment does not belong to some random publication, but to the official English-language magazine of the German Council on Foreign Relations – perhaps the most important think tank in Berlin. “A sick French politician tries to go on the offensive, believing he can fool everyone once again and use his charisma and powers of persuasion to rally the troops behind him and emerge victorious. But he risks the same fate as Napoleon, for whom the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 was the last he fought.”
Next Sunday’s parliamentary elections and the second round on July 7 will mark not only the defeat of Macron’s party, but “probably also the abolition of ‘Macronism’”, adds the “Politico” website.
It is clear, moreover, that the two dominant forces in French political life over the next three years of Macron’s tenure at the Élysée Palace will be the extreme right, nationalist and populist, and a left that, although extremely fragmented, can be united thanks to power perspective.
Although Macron will remain in power until 2027, as he recently announced, his political power will be severely restricted from Sunday. If defeated, he could continue to shape defense and foreign policy, but would lose much of his control of the domestic agenda – economic policy, security and dealing with immigration.
All of this will naturally have an impact on the rest of the world, as France not only holds a leading position in the EU, but also a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and military reach as a global power.
“Civil war”
How does the French president react? With threats that the policies of the extreme right and left will lead to “civil war”.
In the French case, a “civil war” scenario must be interpreted a little more literally than in many other countries. In 2019, France was in the headlines for several months with the “Yellow Vest” movement. As recently as a few months ago, there were fears that French farmers might impose a blockade on the city of Paris in protest against EU agricultural policies.
Macron with threats of “civil war” essentially wants to scare investors. Like another Napoleon, but… “pocket”. Without a doubt, the issue of France’s public debt and public deficit is perhaps the most sensitive issue for investors. At the same time, the geopolitical and energy landscape for Europe is much more complicated and painful following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Macron, with his celebrity of sending French soldiers to Ukraine, has only managed to alienate himself more and more from his compatriots. And he’s not the only one. Mainstream Democratic politicians have increasingly lost touch with the population’s deepest concerns. In the case of France, this further reflects Macron’s authoritarian leadership style.