The market has seen a dramatic drop in the price of Bitcoin over the past two days, falling from a high of $64,500 on Sunday to a low of $58,474. Yesterday’s sharp drop followed an unexpected announcement from the administrator of the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, revealing plans to begin BTC and BCH payments in early July – a move that sent shockwaves through the market.
This news raises urgent questions about the immediate future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price. Amid this market turmoil, several prominent cryptocurrency analysts have weighed in, offering their insights on whether Bitcoin could be approaching a local bottom. Here’s a deeper dive into their analysis and perspectives:
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Tony “The Bull” Severino, chief analyst at NewsBTC, offered a technical analysis of the current situation. Using the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, Severino highlighted that RSI levels are now as oversold as they were during the FTX collapsesuggesting a potential cyclical bottom.
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“Bitcoin’s daily RSI is as oversold as it was during the FTX meltdown, indicating that a cyclical bottom may be forming,” said Severino. This analysis implies that, historically, such levels have often preceded a recovery or at least a stabilization of prices.
Market volume and behavior
The Byzantine General a merchant and market strategist observed the unusually high spot volume that accompanies falling prices. “We are seeing significantly high spot volume, which historically could signal a local background“, he commented. High trading volumes during a price drop can indicate panic selling, which often sells out, leading to a potential recovery.
![Is Bitcoin bottoming? Here's what 7 experts say 1 Bitcoin Volume Analysis](https://thegurumedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/@ByzGeneral.png)
Feelings on social media
Santiment, an analytics platform focusing on social metrics, has seen an increase in discussions around the term “fund” on various social media platforms. “This is one of the biggest spikes in social volume and dominance of the word ‘base’ we’ve seen in the past year,” they reported. Historically, these spikes can mean increased market attention that can be correlated with crucial market movements.
![Is Bitcoin bottoming? Here's what 7 experts say 2 Bitcoin Sentiment](https://thegurumedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GQ3jQD-XUAEicrI.jpg)
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Historical patterns and technical indicators
Teddy (@TeddyCleps), a cryptocurrency trader, emphasized the importance of historical patterns and specific technical indicators such as the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). “Historically, each correction in BTC’s bull run has touched the 21-week EMA before recovering. We are approaching this indicator; If history is any guide, $61,000 could represent rock bottom,” explained Teddy. The 21-week EMA is a key technical level watched by many traders for signs of long-term trend support.
On-chain data analysis
James Check (@Checkmatey), an on-chain data analyst, shared his approach focused more on value acquisition than timing: “My strategy is not to identify the absolute bottom, but to acquire Bitcoin at significant discounts, as indicated by on-chain metrics like STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV are both below 1.” These metrics suggest that short-term holders are selling at a loss, which could be an opportunistic entry point for long-term investors.
I prefer to purchase sats when STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV are below 1.
I’m not looking for pants, I’m looking for significant discounts.
I love seeing that.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/Jou9TSH3A9
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 25, 2024
Historical post-halving performance
Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) analyzed Bitcoin’s performance in post-halving periods, referring to the event in which Bitcoin mining rewards are halved, theoretically increasing its scarcity. “BTC has not broken the high or lost the low of its reaccumulation range in any post-halving period. This historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin should maintain these levels”, he highlighted.
![Is Bitcoin bottoming? Here's what 7 experts say 3 Bitcoin Halving Cycle](https://thegurumedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/rektcapital.jpg)
Market Psychology
Cred (@CryptoCred), another respected trader, offered another angle and is not convinced that the bottom is in yet: “If this is the bottom for BTC, I will probably miss it. Often, a market that fails to break at a certain level, only to come back and close below it later, indicates a more legitimate breakout. I’m not selling short, but I’m not buying either.”
At press time, BTC traded at $61,014.
![Is Bitcoin bottoming? Here's what 7 experts say 4 Bitcoin Price](https://thegurumedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/BTCUSD_2024-06-25_07-54-42.png)
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com