How America’s Strongest Message to Israel Is Interpreted freeze the shipment of weapons cargo.
The US is rightly seen as the only country that has real power over Israel. And yet, throughout the war in GauzeIsrael chose to ignore much of the advice and exhortations of its closest ally.
For its part, the US government insists that its support for the war against Hamas is “unwavering”, but has repeatedly raised concerns about the Israeli military’s failure to protect civilians and the lack of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.
For seven months, the US has gradually increased pressure on Israel. They advised this privately. Publicly notify. They stopped vetoing condemnation resolutions in United Nations. They imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.
Last but not least, there was also her hard phone communication a month ago, between Biden and Netanyahu, in which the US President directly warned that he would reduce US support if Israel did not allow humanitarian aid fleets to cross the border into Gaza.
And yet much of the exhortation and warning fell on deaf ears.
Therefore, it was time for the US to “swing” the most threatening baton.
The US is by far Israel’s largest source of weapons and ammunition.
By federal law, they give Israel $3.8 billion in military aid every year, with the aim of giving the country an advantage over its neighbors.
Last month, Congress approved a bill providing $14 billion in additional military support for Israel.
Now, the Biden administration has frozen a shipment of ammunition to Israel for the first time. A senior government official confirmed that the delivery of thousands of pounds of bombs and other munitions had been disrupted.
Why, then, does the US ultimately seek to exert perhaps its greatest lever of pressure and influence on Israel?
Warning shot
- A first response is the proposal for a military operation against Hamas in Rafah. The US and many Western countries fear this will lead to huge civilian casualties and humanitarian disasters. US officials say the bombs in question are the type that could be used in Rafah with devastating effects in a dense urban environment. The US does not want Israel to attack Rafah and this is (yet another) way to reinforce its message. A US official told the Washington Post that the measure amounts to a “warning shot” to show Israel the seriousness of US concerns.
The second response is the US administration’s desire to maintain pressure on the Israeli cabinet to finally approve a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in the ongoing negotiations in Cairo, with Washington wanting to increase the costs of dealing with Israel in the event of not being able to reach an agreement. commitment.
The elections
A third reason is, of course, the US domestic political sphere. President Biden is under tremendous pressure from Democratic and friendly circles to moderate his support for Israel.
It’s an election year in the US and many researchers are already suggesting that some Democrats – and especially younger ones – may be reluctant support Biden again on the US role in the war in Gaza. And a low turnout could cost him dearly in his battle with Donald Trump.
For its part, Israel may, on the one hand, consider Washington’s decision to assume that US military support will continue in the long term as essentially a bluff and ignore the signal again.
This would certainly be a strong indication of the decline of US influence in the world.
The moment of crisis
However, Israel may not want to risk a historical break with its greatest ally, on which it relied completely for air defense against the massive Iranian attack a few weeks ago.
The moment of crisis will come when the State Department is called upon to decide whether the Israel Defense Forces are using American weapons to violate human rights. A relevant conclusion is expected soon.
In any case, the US is not Israel’s only ally. And if Washington delays arms sales to Israel, then it will increase pressure on other countries to do the same, including Britain. from UK. Such restrictions seem more symbolic than real. But they would contribute to diplomatic isolation of Israel.