It won’t be many years before we’d be talking about the presumptive Grammy album of the year winner, 10 months from the award date. Cases don’t always arise where we would essentially be considering someone as a potential for a big award, when that person was famously nominated for it four times and lost each time.
But never before has there been a year that brought us a “Cowboy Carter,” and so all bets are off when it comes to placing our bets very, very early. While betting that far is rarely completely safe, it still seems incredible – barring unexpected circumstances – that the most talked-about album of Beyoncé’s career would be anything but a favorite as the months tick down to the start of 2025.
Predicting the Grammys so early will certainly result in some clutching your pearls. But Oscar watchers don’t feel as much hesitation when it comes to the calendar, and no one would have thought the Oscar hypothesis had gone overboard when “Barbenheimer” fever hit last summer. Well guess what? “Oppenheimer” was released when there were still five and a half months left in the Oscar calendar year, obvious as that may be. And since the Grammy eligibility period ends sooner than most people realize, in September 2024, we’re actually just six months away from the cutoff — about as far away as Christopher Nolan’s film was from its goalposts when people started they felt confident in calling him a pioneer.
The Grammys are generally much less predictable than the Oscars, so it might seem silly to think about making a name for yourself so soon until we have the musical equivalent of an “Oppenheimer” on our hands.
It seems so.
If you doubt this, you will probably have to expand your social media circle a little, if not your study habits. “Cowboy Carter” became instantly beloved by everyone in music tastemaker circles in a way rarely seen on any album in recent years or decades. There are exceptions, with some very good people having doubts about the album’s greatness, but even most of those who “wait a second” often recognize and admire the scope and ambition of the recordings. Most critics, pop fans, industry people, and even people (intentionally) from inner circles who are fans of country music — Beyoncé’s very loosely focused style this time — are falling over themselves with reward. SelectionCritics were already calling it the most talked about album of the 21st century before it was released. If this speech had turned bitter by the time people heard about it, we would be having a different conversation, but “Cowboy Carter” was not only the talk of the town, but a rare level of near unanimity today. (With space to allow Bey naysayers to dissent, we can all hope.)
Before we talk more about the album’s success in achieving the strength of its own greatness, let’s also consider: what might stand in its way?
Not a lot. The obvious challenger can be seen as the only other album in the rest of this year that will also remain unmistakably a major cultural event: Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Division,” due just three weeks after the arrival of “Cowboy Carter.” outside. And on a purely success level, Swift will certainly outperform and outsell Beyoncé, based on her recent track record of million-unit debut weeks in a period that is truly unattainable for any other artist. Swift is on fire with the Grammys, with critics and clearly with most people. But this could be what allows Beyoncé to finally move forward in the album of the year category after several failures. After “Midnights” just won that trophy this year, giving Swift a record number of personal triumphs in the category, “Tortured Poets Division” could become as strong as that album, “1989” and “Fearless” mixed together and even more so. Hardcore Swifties might be saying, “It’s okay if Beyoncé gets it this time. In truth.”
Who else is a candidate? When it comes to album projects that are seen as a combination of commercial power, vital appeal, and trash-talk essentiality, there are no three-way contenders that have already been eliminated, and none that we know of on the way. Sure, we live in the age of surprise drops, but it’s hard to think of so many artists who might even be holding a surprise behemoth, simply out of sight.
Of the album releases that have already come out this year, the artists who got great shots in the album of the year nomination include Ariana Grande and Kacey Musgraves… and not many others. Upcoming albums from previous nominees Dua Lipa and Haim are also more likely to enter the conversation. But when we talk about some of the best-selling releases of 2024 so far, like the Future/Metro Boomin collaboration, which is selling well but faring modestly with critics, the question is more whether they’ll get a nomination. in November, not whether or not they have a chance to take the lead. The zeitgeist in general is a hard thing to shake, and few music projects are doing that right now.
As for possible releases, no one knows for sure whether Billie Eilish’s third album will be released before or after the September 30 deadline. SZA promised us a brand new album called “Lana”… but also simply said that she plans to release a deluxe version of her latest album before then, so it seems less and less certain that she would get it. putting out two major album projects before the end of September. Speaking of Lanas, Lana Del Rey has her own move to the country on the way, tentatively set to release just before the eligibility deadline. It would be fun to see two supposedly national albums from pop stars compete against each other for the highest Grammy, and it could happen… but when it does, it’s not a stretch to predict that Beyoncé will enter the vote with more wind in her sails. , regardless of how good Del Rey’s album is. Someone else might surprise us, but if we want an Adele or a Kendrick Lamar to release a surprise album that happens to be the album of their career, it’s hard to imagine who could usurp what we are seeing at the current moment.
So, of course, it’s fairly easy to predict a Beyoncé win, partly through an elimination method. And also through “if not now for her, when?” question (although obviously that alone hasn’t pressed her before).
But it still seems better to predict a gold “Cowboy Carter” ribbon based on his own stature, like something all has to have a say in the year of our Lord 2024 – with talk among the many people who actually listened reaching around 95% satisfaction.
How will she do in different classes? It’s safe to say that Beyoncé will go from being the artist who has won the most Grammys in history to being… well, the artist who has won much more than that. “Cowboy Carter” is being classified as a country album for DSP purposes by her people, so although she said “it’s not a country album, it’s a Beyoncé album,” her team will probably place it in a major country. classes, as “Beyoncé” continues to be recognized as her own category by the Grammys.
Will it be accepted there or not, when the Grammy committees have already contentiously changed Kacey Musgraves’ “Star Crossed” from country to pop in accordance with their wishes? Almost certainly; Can you imagine what you’ll pay if the Recording Academy tells the world that “Cowboy Carter” isn’t really a nation — even when it’s a stylistic omnibus? The album will compete for national album and win; “Texas Keep ‘Em” will compete for national song and possibly win. But this also leaves room for songs on the album that feature numerous instructions to be placed in different categories; “Spaghetti” could very well be inscribed in hip-hop, his duet with Miley Cyrus could very well be inscribed as a duo or group pop song, and an R&B contender will probably be in there somewhere as well. Meanwhile, one of the main roots artists, Allison Russell, tweeted that this is an Americana album, not a rustic album – which, in some general sense, is true, given how big an umbrella this period covers – so it would be completely within Beyoncé’s rights to feature on “16 Carriages” or one of the several other tracks available in that region, in addition to her traction everywhere else.
But the big three of the overall field is where the gold awaits this project, so the only real suspense is which songs among a dozen or so great choices Beyoncé will submit for record of the year and song of the year. It’s harder to say they’re shoo-ins, as long as that actually refers to the domain of the collection as a whole rather than any of its individual items. However, AOTY? It’s up to her to lose.
And it will be an achievement for the Recording Academy if it finally manages to recognize an album that almost everyone who watches it can agree felt like a cultural signal. “Cowboy Carter” makes even more statements than it initially got credit for — not just about the history of black women in the country, which would be enough, but about the broad growth and inclusivity of being the musical omnivore that Beyoncé is proving to be. It will be a tradition of victories like these for “Songs in the Key of Life”, “Graceland”, “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” (the last time a black woman won it, but who’s counting) and others – I mark data that they seemed like a cultural change, as well as simply being ruts through which a nation can pass.
For Beyoncé herself, these Grammys clearly won’t be her first rodeo, but they will be her most rewarding.