Standard Chartered’s latest research grades offer a very optimistic outlook for the leading digital assets, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), until the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts project that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could reach the $8,000 mark.
These projections come against a backdrop of significant developments in the crypto space, including the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Ethereum’s recent Dencun upgrade.
Bitcoin’s Path to $150,000
The bank’s research delves deep into the factors driving Bitcoin’s potential rise to $150,000 by the end of the year. Central to this projection is the influence of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which, since their release on January 11thobserved rapid inflows that exceeded increases in open interest.
According to the bank, this suggests a more robust and sustainable positioning for Bitcoin, distinct from previous speculative peaks. “Rapid inflows into new Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs dominated (…) Most of the flows will likely be sticky pension-type flows”, explain Geoff Kendrick and Suki Cooper, highlighting the new stability in Bitcoin investment trends.
Three fundamental analyzes form the basis of Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin valuation:
- Gold Analogy: Drawing parallels with the gold market response For the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates that Bitcoin could rise to the $200,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase over its pre-ETF price.
- Two-asset optimization: When optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000.
- Correlation of ETF inflows: Linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and the price of Bitcoin points to a possible level of $250,000, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s average estimate of $75 billion.
Standard Chartered notes that these three measures suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, (…) and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time. time”.
Additionally, the research notes that “an overshoot to $250,000 is likely sometime in 2025 if ETF flows continue apace and/or reserve managers purchase BTC.” Previously, the bank only foreseen a Bitcoin price of $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Ethereum’s Path to $8,000
Ethereum’s expected climb to $8,000 by the end of 2024 is anchored by two transformative developments: the Dencun upgrade and the expected approval of ETH spot ETFs. The recent dencun updateBy significantly reducing transaction costs on layer 2 blockchains, it increases Ethereum’s competitive advantage.
“Ethereum (ETH) has just undergone the ‘Dencun’ update, which drastically reduces the cost of transactions (…) making ETH more competitive,” notes the research.
The forecast also depends on bringing forward US SEC approval for ETH ETFs by May 23, a decision intended to catalyze substantial flows into Ethereum. Based on the Bitcoin ETF experience, Standard Chartered expects similar enthusiasm for Ethereum, with projected inflows of 2.39 to 9.15 million ETH (equivalent to about $15 to 45 billion).
This substantial capital infusion is seen as a crucial lever for rising Ethereum prices. “We expect significant ETF inflows into ETH (…) This could take ETH to the $8,000 level by the end of 2024,” elaborates the bank, highlighting the parallel potential for growth similar to Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The prognosis for 2025 and beyond
Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered ventures into forecast territory for 2025, where the bank sees the ETH/BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level, a hallmark of the 2021-22 period.
This adjustment predicts an Ethereum price of $14,000 by the end of 2025, given Bitcoin’s projected level of $200,000. This scenario underlines the bank’s optimism regarding the lasting value proposition and growth potential of these main digital assets in the medium term.
At press time, BTC traded at $68,401.
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